Bhardwaj et al. (2026) Future changes to meteorological drought in Australia: insights from the Australian Climate Service’s drought and changes in aridity team

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-05-11
• Authors: Jessica Bhardwaj, David Hoffmann, Tess Parker
• DOI: 10.1071/es25057

Research Groups

• Australian Climate Service (ACS), Drought and Changes in Aridity team

Short Summary

This study uses downscaled CMIP6 projections to analyze future drought trends in Australia, identifying significant increases in drought frequency and duration in southern and south-western regions.

Objective

• To evaluate future changes in meteorological drought and aridity across Australia using a global warming level framework to support climate adaptation and risk planning.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National (Australia), with specific focus on southern, south-western, tropical regions, and the Murray–Darling Basin.
• Temporal Scale: Future projections relative to the current climate.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Dynamically downscaled and bias-adjusted CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) projections.
• Data sources: CMIP6 ensemble members across two emissions scenarios.

Main Results

• High-confidence projections of increased time spent in drought across southern and south-western Australia.
• In specific areas, meteorological droughts are projected to be up to 30% longer and 75% more frequent compared to the current climate.
• Diverging drought futures (lower confidence) were identified for the tropics and portions of the Murray–Darling Basin.
• Identification of outlier ensemble members to assist in planning for high-impact, low-probability events.

Contributions

• Provides actionable climate insights for decision-makers to implement adaptive strategies in high-confidence regions and manage uncertainty in others to sustain the resilience of drought-prone ecosystems and communities.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Bhardwaj2026Future,
  author = {Bhardwaj, Jessica and Hoffmann, David and Parker, Tess},
  title = {Future changes to meteorological drought in Australia: insights from the Australian Climate Service’s drought and changes in aridity team},
  journal = {Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1071/es25057},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1071/es25057}
}