Lv et al. (2026) Watershed Water Supply Security Reliability Assessment and Risk Node Identification in Mountain Piedmont Transition Zones Under Extreme Drought Stress: A Case Study from the Feng River Basin

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Identification

• Journal: Water
• Year: 2026
• Date: 2026-05-07
• Authors: Jiaojiao Lv, Yu Zhang, Yifan Wang, Zhihui Wang, Dongyong Sun, Huan Ma, Xuedi Zhang
• DOI: 10.3390/w18101121

Research Groups

[Not specified]

Short Summary

This study developed a node-based water supply security assessment framework for the Feng River Basin, demonstrating that while basin-wide reliability remains stable, engineering-based water allocation can redistribute and concentrate risks at specific intake nodes during extreme droughts.

Objective

• To transition the water supply security evaluation paradigm from a "total balance" approach to a "node-based" approach to better capture the spatial evolution and heterogeneity of water supply risks during drought conditions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Feng River Basin (piedmont transition zone).
• Temporal Scale: Not specified (evaluated under dry $P = 75\%$ and extremely dry $P = 95\%$ drought scenarios).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for runoff simulation; supply–demand balance model.
• Data sources: Not specified (simulated runoff and water supply/demand data).

Main Results

• Basin-scale reliability: Remained relatively stable across scenarios, ranging between $0.833$ and $0.853$.
• Node-scale heterogeneity: Nodes 1 and 3 exhibited high reliability, while Nodes 4, 6, and 7 showed low reliability and higher shortage risks.
• Impact of engineering allocation:
  • Under dry conditions ($P = 75\%$), reliability slightly increased from $0.848$ to $0.853$.
  • Under extreme drought ($P = 95\%$), reliability decreased from $0.839$ to $0.833$.
• Risk Redistribution: In extreme drought scenarios, engineering interventions led to a marked decline in reliability at Node 7, suggesting that water diversion may shift risks downstream rather than eliminate them.

Contributions

• Proposes a shift from "total safety" to "node safety" in water security assessments.
• Identifies the "dual effect" of water diversion strategies, highlighting that engineering interventions can cause a spatial reconfiguration of risks, which is critical for designing emergency response systems in vulnerable basin areas.

Funding

[Not specified]

Citation

@article{Lv2026Watershed,
  author = {Lv, Jiaojiao and Zhang, Yu and Wang, Yifan and Wang, Zhihui and Sun, Dongyong and Ma, Huan and Zhang, Xuedi},
  title = {Watershed Water Supply Security Reliability Assessment and Risk Node Identification in Mountain Piedmont Transition Zones Under Extreme Drought Stress: A Case Study from the Feng River Basin},
  journal = {Water},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.3390/w18101121},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.3390/w18101121}
}