Ramos et al. (2006) Trends in Precipitation Concentration and Extremes in the Mediterranean Penedès-Anoia Region, Ne Spain

Identification

• Journal: Climatic Change
• Year: 2006
• Date: 2006-02-28
• Authors: M.C. Ramos, J.A. Martı́nez-Casasnovas
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-3458-9

Research Groups

• University of Novi Sad, ACIMSI — University Center for Meteorology and Environmental Modelling, Novi Sad, Serbia
• University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Agriculture, Novi Sad, Serbia
• Geographical Institute “Jovan Cvijic” SASA, Belgrade, Serbia
• South Ural State University, Institute of Sports, Tourism and Service, Chelyabinsk, Russia
• University of Sarajevo, Faculty of Sciences, Department of Geography, Sarajevo, Bosnia and Herzegovina

Short Summary

This study investigated trends in ten extreme daily precipitation indices across seven locations in Vojvodina, Serbia, from 1966 to 2013, revealing a general wetting trend in the north and central parts and a drying trend in the south, influenced by atmospheric teleconnection patterns.

Objective

• To investigate the spatial and temporal variability and trends of ten extreme daily precipitation indices in the Vojvodina region of Serbia from 1966 to 2013.
• To identify the relationship between these extreme precipitation indices and atmospheric teleconnection patterns (NAO, EA, EAWR).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Vojvodina Region, Serbia (21,500 km²), covering seven meteorological stations (Novi Sad, Subotica, Sombor, Kikinda, Zrenjanin, Vršac, Sremska Mitrovica).
• Temporal Scale: 48-year period (1966–2013), analyzed annually and seasonally, and in two sub-periods (1966–1989 and 1990–2013).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) definitions for ten precipitation indices (RX1day, RX5days, PRCPTOT, SDII, R95pTOT, R99pTOT, CDD, CWD, R10mm, R20mm).
  • ACMANT homogenization software for data quality control.
  • Least squares linear method for trend calculation.
  • Student’s t-test for trend significance (at p ≤ 0.05, 0.05 < p ≤ 0.10, and 0.10 < p ≤ 0.25).
  • Pearson’s correlation analysis for relationships with teleconnection patterns (at p ≤ 0.01 and 0.01 < p ≤ 0.05).
• Data sources:
  • Daily precipitation time series from the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHMSS) for seven meteorological stations.
  • Seasonal indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) from Hurrell (1995).
  • Seasonal indices of the East Atlantic (EA) and East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) patterns from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC/NCEP/NOAA).

Main Results

• Approximately 73% of the analyzed precipitation index series showed increasing trends, though most were not statistically significant (7% at p ≤ 0.1).
• The northern and central parts of Vojvodina exhibit a wetting trend (increased precipitation magnitude and frequency), characteristic of the Central European climate regime.
• The southernmost part of the region shows a drying trend, reflecting the Mediterranean climate regime.
• Positive annual trends are strongly influenced by a significant increase in autumn frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation.
• The results indicate an increase in the amount of precipitation in short time intervals and a growing contribution of extreme events to the total annual precipitation (e.g., 22% from very wet days, 7% from extremely wet days).
• The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has the strongest influence on precipitation intensity indices in spring and winter, and on the frequency of dry conditions in winter.
• The East Atlantic/West Russia (EAWR) pattern strongly influences statistically significant positive autumn trends of all intensity and frequency indices, and impacts winter dry/wet conditions and precipitation intensity.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive regional analysis of extreme daily precipitation indices for Vojvodina, Serbia, utilizing a larger number of stations and indices than previous studies in the area.
• Differentiates regional climate influences within Vojvodina, identifying distinct Central European and Mediterranean characteristics in precipitation trends.
• Quantifies the increasing contribution of extreme precipitation events to the total annual precipitation amount in the region.
• Establishes significant correlations between extreme precipitation indices and key atmospheric teleconnection patterns (NAO, EAWR), detailing their seasonal impacts on regional precipitation.

Funding

• Project “Studying Climate Change and its Influence on the Environment: Impacts, Adaptation and Mitigation” (No. III 43007), supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia.
• Project “Geography of Serbia” (No. III 47007), supported by the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Serbia.

Citation

@article{Ramos2006Trends,
  author = {Ramos, M.C. and Martı́nez-Casasnovas, J.A.},
  title = {Trends in Precipitation Concentration and Extremes in the Mediterranean Penedès-Anoia Region, Ne Spain},
  journal = {Climatic Change},
  year = {2006},
  doi = {10.1007/s10584-006-3458-9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-3458-9}
}