Turco et al. (2011) Testing MOS precipitation downscaling for ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Spain

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Identification

• Journal: Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
• Year: 2011
• Authors: Marco Turco, Pere Quintana Seguí, María Carmen Llasat, Sixto Herrera, José Manuel Gutiérrez
• DOI: 10.1029/2011jd016166

Research Groups

Researchers focused on statistical downscaling and regional climate modeling, utilizing data provided by the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project.

Short Summary

This study evaluates the Model Output Statistics (MOS) analog downscaling method applied to daily precipitation outputs from ENSEMBLES Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Spain (1961–2000). The MOS analog method significantly improves the representation of precipitation statistics (mean, extremes, frequency) across all RCMs and regions, demonstrating robustness under extreme climate conditions.

Objective

• To test the performance and robustness of a Model Output Statistics (MOS) implementation of the analog methodology (MOS analog) for downscaling daily precipitation outputs from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) over Spain.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Spain (Regional scale).
• Temporal Scale: Daily precipitation; common period 1961–2000 (40 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Analog methodology implemented via Model Output Statistics (MOS analog). Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the ENSEMBLES project were used as input.
• Data sources: ERA40-driven RCM outputs (ENSEMBLES project); Spain02 gridded observations data set.

Main Results

• The MOS analog method consistently improved the representation of mean precipitation regimes, the annual cycle, frequency, and extreme precipitation events for all RCMs tested.
• The method successfully preserved the daily accuracy of the RCM outputs while correcting systematic biases.
• Cross-validation performed during extreme climate conditions (driest or wettest years) confirmed the robustness of the method, showing particular effectiveness in improving RCM results during dry years.
• The strong performance in the complex climatic region of Spain suggests high potential for transferability to other regions.

Contributions

• Introduction and validation of the MOS analog approach as a robust alternative to the standard perfect prognosis statistical downscaling for RCM outputs.
• Demonstration of the method's ability to simultaneously correct multiple statistical properties of precipitation (mean, frequency, extremes) across various RCMs.
• Confirmation of the method's stability and reliability under non-stationary climate conditions (extreme wet/dry years).

Funding

• EU-funded ENSEMBLES project.

Citation

@article{Turco2011Testing,
  author = {Turco, Marco and Quintana‐Seguí, Pere and Llasat, María Carmen and Herrera, Sixto and Gutiérrez, José Manuel},
  title = {Testing MOS precipitation downscaling for ENSEMBLES regional climate models over Spain},
  journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres},
  year = {2011},
  doi = {10.1029/2011jd016166},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd016166}
}

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