Quintana‐Seguí et al. (2011) Comparison of past and future Mediterranean high and low extremes of precipitation and river flow projected using different statistical downscaling methods

Identification

• Journal: Natural hazards and earth system sciences
• Year: 2011
• Authors: Pere Quintana Seguí, Florence Habets, Éric Martin
• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-11-1411-2011

Research Groups

Observatori de l'Ebre (OE), CSIC – Universitat Ramon Llull, Roquetes, Spain CNRM-GAME, URA1357, CNRS – Météo-France, Toulouse, France CNRS/UPMC, UMR7619 Sisyphe, Mines-Paristech, France

Short Summary

This study compares three statistical downscaling methods (Anomaly, Quantile Mapping, Weather Typing) applied to a regional climate simulation to project changes in precipitation and river flow extremes across the Mediterranean basins of France, finding that the hydrological model amplifies differences between downscaling inputs and projecting severe increases in flood risk in the Cévennes region by 2064.

Objective

• Compare the performance of three statistical downscaling methods (anomaly method, quantile mapping, and weather typing) in reproducing and projecting high and low extremes of precipitation and river flow in Mediterranean French basins, using a distributed hydrological model.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mediterranean basins of France, including the Cévennes and the Rhône basin.
• Temporal Scale: Comparison of historical period (end of the 20th century) and future scenario (2035–2064, middle of the 21st century).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Distributed hydrological model; Regional Climate Simulation (RCS).
• Data sources: Regional climate simulation outputs; Three statistical downscaling methods applied: Anomaly method, Quantile Mapping, and Weather Typing.

Main Results

• Both quantile mapping and weather typing methods successfully reproduce high and low precipitation extremes in the region of interest.
• When the hydrological model is forced with the downscaled data, significant differences in river flow outputs are observed, indicating that the hydrological model amplifies the differences between downscaling methods.
• The simple anomaly method performed better than anticipated in simulating river flow extremes.
• Future projections (2035–2064) show that monthly low flows are expected to diminish by as much as 20% almost everywhere in the study region.
• In the Cévennes area, high flows are projected to increase substantially: the frequency of what was a 10-year return flood at the end of the 20th century is expected to increase to once every two years (a 2-year return period).
• The magnitude of the 10-year return flood in the Cévennes is expected to carry 100% more water (i.e., double the flow rate) compared to the 10-year return floods experienced at the end of the 20th century.
• In the northern part of the Rhône basin, both high and low extremes are projected to be reduced.

Contributions

• Provides a direct comparison of the sensitivity of hydrological extreme projections to the choice of statistical downscaling method.
• Demonstrates that the amplification of downscaling differences by the hydrological model suggests that downscaling of other atmospheric variables (beyond precipitation) is crucial for accurate river discharge simulation.
• Offers quantitative projections of severe increases in flood frequency and magnitude in the highly vulnerable Cévennes region under mid-21st century climate change.

Funding

• Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{QuintanaSeguí2011Comparison,
  author = {Quintana‐Seguí, Pere and Habets, Florence and Martin, Éric},
  title = {Comparison of past and future Mediterranean high and low extremes of precipitation and river flow projected using different statistical downscaling methods},
  journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  year = {2011},
  doi = {10.5194/nhess-11-1411-2011},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-1411-2011}
}

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