Queguiner et al. (2011) Impact of the use of a CO<sub>2</sub> responsive land surface model in simulating the effect of climate change on the hydrology of French Mediterranean basins

Identification

• Journal: Natural hazards and earth system sciences
• Year: 2011
• Authors: S. Queguiner, Éric Martin, S. Lafont, J.-C. Calvet, Stéphanie Faroux, Pere Quintana Seguí
• DOI: 10.5194/nhess-11-2803-2011

Research Groups

• CNRM/GAME (Météo-France, CNRS), URA 1357, Toulouse, France
• Observatori de l'Ebre, Universitat Ramon Llull – CSIC, Roquetes, Spain

Short Summary

This study compares a standard Land Surface Model (LSM) with a CO${2}$-responsive version (ISBA-A-gs) to evaluate the uncertainty introduced by the impact model choice on projected climate change effects on hydrology in French Mediterranean basins. The CO${2}$-responsive model showed significantly different seasonal hydrological responses, projecting increased springtime evapotranspiration and more significant regional discharge changes compared to the standard model.

Objective

• Evaluate the uncertainty associated with the impact model (Land Surface Model) in climate change studies by comparing the standard ISBA model with its CO$_{2}$-responsive version (ISBA-A-gs).
• Simulate the effect of a downscaled A2 regional climate scenario on the hydrology of French Mediterranean basins, comparing results for the present climate and the end of the century.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: French Mediterranean basin (regional scale).
• Temporal Scale: Comparison between present climate and the climate at the end of the century (long-term projection using the A2 scenario).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: ISBA-Standard (Land Surface Model), ISBA-A-gs (CO$_{2}$ responsive version of ISBA), and the Safran-Isba-Modcou chain (a coupled modeling system).
• Data sources: Downscaled A2 regional climate scenario (forcing data), discharge observations (for model validation).

Main Results

• In the present climate simulation, ISBA-A-gs resulted in lower mean evapotranspiration and higher discharge compared to ISBA-Standard.
• Annual projections for evapotranspiration, total runoff, and discharge under the climate change scenario were generally coherent between the two model versions.
• The two ISBA versions presented contrasting seasonal variations, primarily due to a different vegetation cycle simulated by ISBA-A-gs (earlier growth onset, rapid summertime decrease).
• ISBA-A-gs projected a significant increase in springtime evapotranspiration and a decrease in autumn evapotranspiration when compared to ISBA-Standard under climate change.
• On average, discharge changes projected at the regional scale were more significant when using the CO$_{2}$-responsive model (ISBA-A-gs).

Contributions

• Quantifies the uncertainty introduced by the physiological effect of atmospheric CO$_{2}$ concentration (via model choice) on hydrological projections under climate change scenarios.
• Demonstrates that while annual changes may be similar, the seasonal distribution of water resources (evapotranspiration and discharge) is highly sensitive to the inclusion of CO$_{2}$ responsiveness in the LSM.
• Provides a critical assessment of impact model uncertainty within the Safran-Isba-Modcou chain applied to the French Mediterranean region.

Funding

• Funding information was not explicitly provided in the abstract or metadata.

Citation

@article{Queguiner2011Impact,
  author = {Queguiner, S. and Martin, Éric and Lafont, S. and Calvet, J.-C. and Faroux, Stéphanie and Quintana‐Seguí, Pere},
  title = {Impact of the use of a CO<sub>2</sub> responsive land surface model in simulating the effect of climate change on the hydrology of French Mediterranean basins},
  journal = {Natural hazards and earth system sciences},
  year = {2011},
  doi = {10.5194/nhess-11-2803-2011},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-2803-2011}
}

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