Turco et al. (2012) Testing instrumental and downscaled reanalysis time series for temperature trends in NE of Spain in the last century

Identification

• Journal: Regional Environmental Change
• Year: 2012
• Authors: Marco Turco, Raül Marcos-Matamoros, Pere Quintana Seguí, María Carmen Llasat
• DOI: 10.1007/s10113-012-0363-9

Research Groups

• GAMA (Meteorological Hazards Analysis Team), Department of Astronomy Meteorology, Faculty of Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
• Impact on Soil and Coast Division, Euro-Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change (CMCC), Lecce, Italy.
• Observatori de l’Ebre (Universitat Ramon Llull—CSIC), Roquetes, Spain.

Short Summary

This study proposes a simple statistical downscaling methodology using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and 20CR reanalysis data to detect and reconstruct inhomogeneities in centennial temperature series in NE Spain, confirming a clear warming trend that is strongest in maximum temperatures and recent decades.

Objective

• To develop and test a new, simple methodology based on parsimonious statistical downscaling of large-scale reanalysis data to detect unknown artificial inhomogeneities and reconstruct uncertain portions of long-range temperature time series, especially when nearby comparison series are unavailable.
• To apply this methodology to two centennial observatories (Ebre and Fabra) in the Northeast of Spain and analyze the resulting temperature trends over the last century.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Local station scale (Ebre and Fabra observatories) within the regional context of Northeast Spain, utilizing large-scale reanalysis data.
• Temporal Scale: Centennial scale (covering the last century, with series starting around 1894 and 1913).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical Downscaling via Parsimonious Multiple Linear Regression (MLR).
• Data sources: Instrumental temperature time series from two centennial observatories (Ebre and Fabra); Large-scale reanalysis data (Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project - 20CR).

Main Results

• The proposed statistical downscaling methodology successfully identified periods of inhomogeneity in the long-range temperature series and allowed for the reconstruction of the uncertain data portions.
• Trend analysis confirmed a clear signal of warming in the Northeast of Spain over the last century.
• The rate of temperature increase was found to be larger for the maximum temperature (Tmax) compared to the minimum temperature (Tmin).
• Warming rates were significantly larger when considering only the more recent decades compared to the whole available period.
• The original (inhomogeneous) series exhibited a larger warming rate compared to the reconstructed (homogenized) series.

Contributions

• Development of a novel, simple, and effective statistical downscaling technique (MLR using 20CR) specifically tailored for the homogenization and reconstruction of long-term temperature series that lack suitable reference stations.
• Successful application of this method to two historically significant centennial observatories in NE Spain (Ebre and Fabra), providing robust, homogenized temperature trend estimates for the region.
• Provision of quantitative evidence regarding the differential warming rates between maximum and minimum temperatures and across different time periods in the study area.

Funding

• esTcena project (Exp. 200800050084078), a strategic action from Plan Nacional de I+D+i 2008–2011 funded by the Spanish Ministry of Medio Ambiente y Medio Rural y Marino.

Citation

@article{Turco2012Testing,
  author = {Turco, Marco and Marcos-Matamoros, Raül and Quintana‐Seguí, Pere and Llasat, María Carmen},
  title = {Testing instrumental and downscaled reanalysis time series for temperature trends in NE of Spain in the last century},
  journal = {Regional Environmental Change},
  year = {2012},
  doi = {10.1007/s10113-012-0363-9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-012-0363-9}
}

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