Monjo et al. (2015) Changes in extreme precipitation over Spain using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 projections

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2015
• Date: 2015-06-01
• Authors: Robert Monjo, Emma Gaitán, Javier Pórtoles, Jaime Ribalaygua, Luis Torres
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.4380

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study investigates projected changes in extreme precipitation in Spain for the 21st century using downscaled CMIP5 climate models. It finds that while overall changes are generally within natural variability, specific coastal areas in southern Valencia and northern Alicante may experience increased extreme rainfall, contrasting with decreases observed slightly inland.

Objective

• To study possible changes of extreme precipitation in Spain for the 21st century, simulated from several Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Spain, focusing on 144 selected rain gauges, particularly along the Mediterranean coast (southern Valencia and northern Alicante).
• Temporal Scale: Projections for the period 2051–2100 compared to the historical period 1951–2000.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP5 climate models (18 projections: 9 under RCP4.5 and 9 under RCP8.5 scenarios).
• Data sources: Observed time-series from 144 rain gauges (selected based on a threshold of 250 mm in one day for a 100-year return period). ERA40 reanalysis for extending observed time-series. Statistical downscaling using a two-step analogue/regression method. Parametric quantile-quantile method for correcting climate projections. Five theoretical distributions (Gamma, Weibull, Classical Gumbel, Reversed Gumbel, Log-logistic) for estimating precipitation for 10, 20, 50, and 100-year return periods.

Main Results

• Projected changes for 2051–2100 compared to 1951–2000 are consistent (in sign and value) across 10, 20, 50, and 100-year return periods.
• Overall, changes in extreme rainfall patterns are generally less than the natural variability.
• Regional variations are detected: decreases in extreme precipitation are expected a few kilometres inland, while a possible increase is projected for the coastline of southern Valencia and northern Alicante, areas historically experiencing the most extreme rainfall.

Contributions

• Development and demonstration of a useful methodology for studying extreme rainfall under various climate scenarios.
• Provision of regional insights into future extreme precipitation changes along the Mediterranean coast of Spain, highlighting areas of potential increase despite overall stability.

Funding

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Monjo2015Changes,
  author = {Monjo, Robert and Gaitán, Emma and Pórtoles, Javier and Ribalaygua, Jaime and Torres, Luis},
  title = {Changes in extreme precipitation over Spain using statistical downscaling of <scp>CMIP5</scp> projections},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2015},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.4380},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4380}
}