Jódar-Abellán et al. (2018) Impact of land use changes on flash flood prediction using a sub-daily SWAT model in five Mediterranean ungauged watersheds (SE Spain)

Identification

• Journal: The Science of The Total Environment
• Year: 2018
• Date: 2018-12-06
• Authors: Antonio Jódar-Abellán, Javier Valdés-Abellán, Concepción Pla, Francisco Gomariz‐Castillo
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.034

Research Groups

• University Institute of Water and Environmental Sciences, University of Alicante, Spain
• Department of Civil Engineering, University of Alicante, Spain
• Euro-Mediterranean Water Institute, University of Murcia, Spain

Short Summary

This study analyzed the impact of land use changes, particularly urban growth, on flash flood prediction in five Mediterranean ungauged watersheds in SE Spain using a sub-daily SWAT model, revealing a significant increase in peak flow rates and flash flood risk due to urbanization.

Objective

• To analyze the temporal evolution of the hydrological response and flash flood risk in five Mediterranean ravine basins in SE Spain, specifically investigating the impact of land use changes (urbanization) on flash flood prediction using a sub-daily SWAT model.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Five Mediterranean ravine basins in SE Spain, ranging from 10.2 km² to 200.9 km².
• Temporal Scale: Five land use scenarios (no-urbanization/baseline, 1990, 2000, 2006, 2012) were evaluated. Simulations were conducted at a sub-daily temporal resolution.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, configured for sub-daily simulation.
• Data sources: GIS-based tools for developing five land use scenarios (no-urbanization, 1990, 2000, 2006, 2012). Precipitation data for Mediterranean convective systems (some episodes surpassing 200–300 mm in 3 or 4 hours). Statistical analysis included Kruskal-Wallis and post-hoc tests based on Mann-Whitney with BH correction.

Main Results

• High urban development in the coastline of SE Spain significantly increases curve number rates, reaching 80–90.
• Flash flood simulations using the SWAT model reported discharge rates exceeding 900 m³/s.
• Peak flow rates have doubled or tripled as a consequence of land use changes (urbanization) over recent decades.
• Some discharges increased significantly from the baseline land use scenario (e.g., ≈50 m³/s, 190 m³/s, 380 m³/s) to the most urbanized scenario (e.g., ≈235 m³/s, 385 m³/s, 940 m³/s).
• Currently, some catchments present around 70% of their surface occupied by urban land uses, leading to curve numbers surpassing 85 and 90.
• The hydrological response of the studied basins shifted towards higher flow rate peaks and shorter concentration times.

Contributions

• Quantifies the significant impact of land use changes, particularly rapid urban growth, on increasing flash flood risk and peak flow rates in vulnerable Mediterranean ungauged watersheds.
• Provides crucial information for urban planning policy makers regarding flash flood effects in regions susceptible to high demographic and touristic pressure.
• Demonstrates the effective application of a sub-daily SWAT model to capture complex hydrological dynamics in Mediterranean ravine basins.

Funding

• Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{JódarAbellán2018Impact,
  author = {Jódar-Abellán, Antonio and Valdés-Abellán, Javier and Pla, Concepción and Gomariz‐Castillo, Francisco},
  title = {Impact of land use changes on flash flood prediction using a sub-daily SWAT model in five Mediterranean ungauged watersheds (SE Spain)},
  journal = {The Science of The Total Environment},
  year = {2018},
  doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.034},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.12.034}
}