Crämer et al. (2018) Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean

Identification

• Journal: Nature Climate Change
• Year: 2018
• Date: 2018-10-16
• Authors: Wolfgang Crämer, Joël Guiot, Marianela Fader, Joaquim Garrabou, Jean‐Pierre Gattuso, Ana Iglesias, Manfred A. Lange, Piero Lionello, María Carmen Llasat, Shlomit Paz, Josep Peñuelas, Maria Snoussi, Andrea Toreti, Michael Tsimplis, Elena Xoplaki
• DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0299-2

Research Groups

• IMBE, Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, Avignon University, Aix-en-Provence, France
• Aix Marseille University, CNRS, IRD, INRA, College de France, CEREGE, Aix-en-Provence, France
• International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change, UNESCO, Federal Institute of Hydrology, Koblenz, Germany
• Institut Ciències del Mar, CSIC, Barcelona, Spain
• Aix Marseille University, Université de Toulon, CNRS, IRD, MIO, Marseille, France
• Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Laboratoire d’Océanographie de Villefranche, Villefranche-sur-mer, France
• Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations, Sciences Po, Paris, France
• Department of Agricultural Economics, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Madrid, Spain
• Energy, Environment and Water Research Center, Cyprus Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
• DiSTeBA, University of Salento, Lecce, Italy
• CMCC, Lecce, Italy
• Department of Applied Physics, University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain
• Department of Geography and Environmental Studies, University of Haifa, Haifa, Israel
• Global Ecology Unit, CREAF-CSIC-UAB, Barcelona, Spain
• CREAF, Barcelona, Spain
• Faculté des Sciences, Université Mohammed V, Rabat, Morocco
• European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy
• School of Law, Hong Kong City University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong
• Climatology, Climate Dynamics and Climate Change, Department of Geography, Justus-Liebig Universität Gießen, Gießen, Germany

Short Summary

This review synthesizes current and projected climate change impacts across five interconnected domains (water, ecosystems, food, health, security) in the Mediterranean Basin, highlighting significant and increasing risks to sustainable development. It emphasizes the urgent need for better information and adaptation strategies, especially for vulnerable southern Mediterranean societies.

Objective

• To synthesize existing scientific knowledge across disciplines to provide a better understanding of the combined risks posed by accelerated climate change to sustainable development in the Mediterranean Basin, particularly for vulnerable southern Mediterranean societies.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Mediterranean Basin, including specific sub-regions like southern Europe, eastern Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa, and coastal zones.
• Temporal Scale: Historic warming (since 1960, 1945–2000, 1970–2006, 1993–2011), current change, and future scenarios (coming decades, 21st century, mid-21st century, up to 2050), with some analyses extending to the past 10,000 years for ecosystem variability.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: This is a review paper synthesizing findings from numerous studies. It references the use of various climate and impact models, including regional climate models (e.g., EURO-CORDEX), process-based ecosystem models, hydrological models (e.g., SWAT), and global fisheries models.
• Data sources: Synthesis of existing scientific literature, including systematic observation schemes, satellite data, reanalysis data, pollen-based vegetation reconstructions, tide gauge data, local ecological knowledge, and producer surveys.

Main Results

• Accelerated climate change exacerbates existing environmental problems (land use change, pollution, biodiversity decline) in the Mediterranean Basin.
• Significant and increasing risks are projected across five interconnected domains: water, ecosystems, food, health, and security.
• Specific impacts include increasing drought severity, climate-driven mass mortality events in marine ecosystems, increased irrigation water requirements for agriculture, higher frequency of river floods, more intense heatwaves, shifts in marine biodiversity and fisheries, increased risk of vector-borne diseases, coastal inundation due to sea level rise and subsidence, and desertification.
• Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is crucial for Mediterranean land ecosystems to remain within their past 10,000-year variability.
• Vulnerable southern Mediterranean societies particularly lack adequate information, systematic observations, and impact models for effective adaptation.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, interdisciplinary synthesis of current and projected climate change risks for sustainable development in the Mediterranean Basin.
• Highlights the interconnectedness of risks across water, ecosystems, food, health, and security domains, offering a holistic perspective.
• Identifies critical information gaps and the need for improved systematic observations and impact models, especially for vulnerable southern Mediterranean societies.
• Serves as a foundational scientific update to inform policy for risk mitigation and adaptation strategies in the region.

Funding

• Laboratory of Excellence OT-Med (A*MIdex project no. 11-IDEX-0001-02)

Citation

@article{Crämer2018Climate,
  author = {Crämer, Wolfgang and Guiot, Joël and Fader, Marianela and Garrabou, Joaquim and Gattuso, Jean‐Pierre and Iglesias, Ana and Lange, Manfred A. and Lionello, Piero and Llasat, María Carmen and Paz, Shlomit and Peñuelas, Josep and Snoussi, Maria and Toreti, Andrea and Tsimplis, Michael and Xoplaki, Elena},
  title = {Climate change and interconnected risks to sustainable development in the Mediterranean},
  journal = {Nature Climate Change},
  year = {2018},
  doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0299-2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0299-2}
}