Cardell et al. (2020) Future extremes of temperature and precipitation in Europe derived from a combination of dynamical and statistical approaches

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2020
• Date: 2020-01-22
• Authors: Maria Francisca Cardell, A. Amengual, R. Romero, C. Ramis
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.6490

Research Groups

EURO-CORDEX project (a collaborative effort involving multiple regional climate modeling groups)

Short Summary

This study projects future changes in extreme weather events across Europe using observed and bias-adjusted regional climate model data under the RCP8.5 scenario, finding a general increase in warm extremes and heavy precipitation, alongside longer dry periods.

Objective

• To derive prospects on the future of climate indices linked to extreme weather phenomena (heat waves, cold spells, droughts, heavy precipitation, intense cyclonic wind-storms) across Europe.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental Europe, with regional analyses focusing on Southern Europe, South Eastern Europe, the Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Baltic countries.
• Temporal Scale: Projections extending to the end of the 21st century (future emissions scenario RCP8.5).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Regional climate models integrated in the European EURO-CORDEX project.
• Data sources:
  • E-OBS high-resolution gridded datasets of observed precipitation and surface minimum and maximum temperatures (baseline).
  • Model projected daily meteorological data (precipitation, surface minimum and maximum temperatures) from EURO-CORDEX regional climate models.
  • A quantile–quantile adjustment was applied to simulated regional scenarios to reduce biases in modeled extreme regimes.

Main Results

• Warm days are projected to substantially increase across Europe, consistently with a decrease in cold nights.
• An increase in heat wave amplitude is expected across the continent, with South Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean identified as the most affected regions.
• Northern Europe is projected to undergo the largest decrease in cold spell magnitude.
• An overall rise in the frequency and volume of heavy precipitations is projected in all seasons.
• The number of dry days is also expected to increase, with the exception of the Baltic countries.
• Regarding abnormally long dry periods (extreme droughts), the occurrence of episodes is projected to reduce over Europe as a consequence of projected increases in their length.

Contributions

• Provides comprehensive projections of future changes in a suite of extreme climate indices across Europe, utilizing high-resolution observed data (E-OBS) and bias-adjusted regional climate model outputs from EURO-CORDEX.
• Highlights significant regional differences in the projected impacts of extreme events, such as the differential effects on heat waves, cold spells, and dry days across various European sub-regions.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Cardell2020Future,
  author = {Cardell, Maria Francisca and Amengual, A. and Romero, R. and Ramis, C.},
  title = {Future extremes of temperature and precipitation in Europe derived from a combination of dynamical and statistical approaches},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2020},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.6490},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6490}
}