Meseguer-Ruiz et al. (2021) Temporal changes in extreme precipitation and exposure of tourism in Eastern and South-Eastern Spain

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2021
• Date: 2021-02-09
• Authors: Óliver Meseguer-Ruiz, Joan A. López-Bustins, Laia Arbiol-Roca, Javier Martín Vide, Javier Miró, María José Estrela
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-021-03548-6

Research Groups

• Departament de Geografia, Universitat de València, Spain
• Andorra Research + Innovation, Sant Julià De L`oria, Andorra
• Climatology Group, Department of Geography, University of Barcelona, Spain
• Departamento de Geografía, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Spain
• Interuniversitary Institute of Geography, University of Alicante, Spain
• Departamento de Geografía, Universidad de Chile, CITRID, Programa de Reducción de Riesgos y Desastres, Universidad de Chile, Santiago, Chile
• Departamento de Ciencias Históricas y Geográficas, Universidad de Tarapacá, Iquique, Chile

Short Summary

This study identified 12 spatial patterns of 899 torrential precipitation events (≥150 mm in 24 h) along the Spanish Mediterranean coast from 1950–2020, revealing significant positive trends in accumulated volumes for three eastern/southeastern components linked to unstable atmospheric situations and moist advection.

Objective

• To identify the main torrential events (≥150 mm in 24 h) that occurred along the Spanish Mediterranean coast between 1950 and 2020.
• To determine the spatial components and trends of these torrential precipitation events.
• To obtain the synoptic characterizations of these events at mean sea-level pressure (slp) and 500 hPa geopotential height (z500).
• To provide new insights into the surface and mid-tropospheric processes associated with torrential precipitation, aiding in the understanding of catastrophic situations and improving early alert systems.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Spanish Mediterranean coast and Balearic Islands, including an additional area at least 100 km inland from the Iberian Peninsula. Reanalysis data covered 25°N–70°N and 30°W–30°E.
• Temporal Scale: 1950–2020 (71 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Non-negative matrix factorization (NNMF) for dimensionality reduction and spatial component identification.
  • Non-parametric Sen method for trend calculation.
  • Mann–Kendall test for statistical significance of trends.
  • Vertically Integrated Water Vapor Transport (IVT) calculation.
• Data sources:
  • 3,537 daily precipitation series from CDRD-HR-EIP and SPREAD databases, primarily from Agencia Estatal de Meteorología (AEMet), supplemented by Sistema Integral de Atención al Regante (SIAR) and Fundación Centro de Estudios Ambientales del Mediterráneo (CEAM).
  • Fifth European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts Re-analysis (ERA-5) for daily mean sea-level pressure (slp) and 500 hPa geopotential height (z500) at 0.25° horizontal resolution.

Main Results

• 899 torrential precipitation events (≥150 mm in 24 h) were identified across the study period.
• 12 distinct spatial components of torrential precipitation were identified using NNMF, with maximum daily precipitation amounts ranging from 150 mm to 300 mm in 24 h.
• Three components (6, 7, and 8), primarily located in the eastern and southeastern areas (Almería, Murcia, Alicante, southern Valencia), showed statistically significant positive trends in accumulated volumes between 1950 and 2020:
  • Component 6 increased by 2.44 mm (55.9%).
  • Component 7 increased by 2.32 mm (53.4%).
  • Component 8 increased by 3.58 mm (75.3%), with over 100% increase for its 99.9th percentile values.
• Torrential rainfall events are strongly associated with unstable atmospheric situations in the mid-troposphere (troughs and cut-off lows) and sea-component advections of moist air at sea-level pressure.
• Wind direction is a key factor, with rainfall peaks often occurring where surface flow is perpendicular to coastal or mountain ranges.
• Most events occurred in early autumn (September and October), coinciding with the highest Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which contribute to increased moisture supply.

Contributions

• First application of Non-negative Matrix Factorization (NNMF) to robustly identify and regionalize spatial components of torrential rainfall events along the Spanish Mediterranean coast.
• Quantified significant positive trends in accumulated volumes for specific eastern and southeastern torrential rainfall components over a 71-year period, providing crucial insights into regional climate change impacts.
• Provided detailed synoptic characterizations (slp, z500, IVT) for each of the 12 spatial components, linking specific atmospheric circulation patterns and moisture transport to extreme precipitation.
• Highlighted the critical role of wind direction, orography, and warm Mediterranean Sea surface temperatures in the genesis and localization of torrential rainfall events.
• Contributes to a better understanding of the processes leading to catastrophic situations, aiming to improve early alert systems and management plans in a climate change context.

Funding

• Proyecto UTA-Mayor N°5807–22 from the Universidad de Tarapacá, Chile.
• Climatology Group (2017SGR1362, Catalan Government).
• Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (UAM) and Comunidad de Madrid through project SI3-PJI-2021-00398.
• Natural Hazards and Global Change research group from UAM.
• Government of Aragón through the “Program of research groups” (group H09_20R, “Climate, Water, Global Change, and Natural Systems”).
• Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación through research project PID2020-118797RB-I00 (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033).
• Generalitat Valenciana through research project PROMETEO/2021/016 (Conselleria d’Innovació, Universitats, Ciència i Societat Digital).

Citation

@article{MeseguerRuiz2021Temporal,
  author = {Meseguer-Ruiz, Óliver and López-Bustins, Joan A. and Arbiol-Roca, Laia and Vide, Javier Martín and Miró, Javier and Estrela, María José},
  title = {Temporal changes in extreme precipitation and exposure of tourism in Eastern and South-Eastern Spain},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2021},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-021-03548-6},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03548-6}
}