Gimeno et al. (2022) Extreme precipitation events

Identification

• Journal: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water
• Year: 2022
• Date: 2022-08-19
• Authors: Luís Gimeno, Rogert Sorí, M. Vázquez, Milica Stojanovic, Iago Algarra, Jorge Eiras‐Barca, Luis Gimeno‐Sotelo, Raquel Nieto
• DOI: 10.1002/wat2.1611

Research Groups

• Centro de Investigación Mariña, Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), Universidade de Vigo, Ourense, Spain
• Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, Faculty of Physics, Sofia University “St. Kliment Ohridski”, Sofia, Bulgaria
• Defense University Center, The Spanish Naval Academy, Marín, Spain

Short Summary

This review synthesizes current understanding of extreme precipitation events, covering their definition, physical basis, observed and projected changes, and the crucial role of atmospheric moisture transport, while also outlining key challenges for future research.

Objective

• To review and synthesize the current understanding of extreme precipitation events, including their definition, physical basis, observed and future changes, and the role of moisture transport, to identify challenges for future research and enhance societal adaptation to climate change impacts.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global, continental, and regional scales (e.g., North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia, Mediterranean, tropics, extratropics).
• Temporal Scale: Historical periods (e.g., decades, 1901–2010, 1964–2013, 1970–2018) and future projections (up to the end of the 21st century).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Climate models (e.g., CMIP5, Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment - CORDEX), statistical models based on Extreme Value Theory (Generalized Extreme Value distribution, Generalized Pareto distribution, Peaks-Over-Threshold), and detrended fluctuation analysis.
• Data sources: Global and regional observations, instrumental records, reanalysis data, and gridded land-based datasets of temperature and precipitation extremes (e.g., HadEX3, ETCCDI indices).

Main Results

• Extreme precipitation events are increasing in frequency and intensity globally, with an observed average increase of 5.73 mm over 110 years (1901–2010), corresponding to approximately 10% K$^{-1}$ global warming.
• Thermodynamic changes (increased atmospheric moisture content due to warming) are the primary driver of observed and projected increases in extreme precipitation, often scaling with the Clausius–Clapeyron rate (approximately 7% K$^{-1}$), while dynamic effects play a secondary, regionally variable role.
• Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) and Low-Level Jets (LLJs) are identified as major mechanisms of atmospheric moisture transport, significantly contributing to extreme precipitation events globally, and are projected to intensify with global warming.
• Significant challenges remain in defining "extreme" events consistently, accurately modeling tropical extremes (especially convection mechanisms), improving short- and long-term predictions, and robustly attributing changes to anthropogenic forcing.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, interdisciplinary review and synthesis of the state-of-the-art knowledge on extreme precipitation events.
• Systematizes the understanding of the physical basis, observed trends, and future projections of extreme precipitation in a warming climate.
• Emphasizes the critical role of large-scale atmospheric moisture transport mechanisms (ARs and LLJs) in the occurrence and intensification of extreme precipitation.
• Identifies and articulates seven key challenges for future research, guiding efforts to improve prediction, modeling, and adaptation strategies for extreme precipitation events.

Funding

• Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades, Spain (LAGRIMA project, Grant/Award Number: RTI2018-095772-B-I00)
• Xunta de Galicia, Consellería de Cultura, Educación e Universidade (Project ED431C 2021/44 “Programa de Consolidación e Estructuración de Unidades de Investigación Competitivas”)
• Xunta of Galicia (Grants ED481B/2019/070, ED481B/2021/134, ED481D/2022/020)
• UVIGO PhD grant
• Defense University Center at the Spanish Naval (CUD-ENM)

Citation

@article{Gimeno2022Extreme,
  author = {Gimeno, Luís and Sorí, Rogert and Vázquez, M. and Stojanovic, Milica and Algarra, Iago and Eiras‐Barca, Jorge and Gimeno‐Sotelo, Luis and Nieto, Raquel},
  title = {Extreme precipitation events},
  journal = {Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water},
  year = {2022},
  doi = {10.1002/wat2.1611},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/wat2.1611}
}