Kreibich et al. (2022) The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management

Identification

• Journal: Nature
• Year: 2022
• Authors: Heidi Kreibich, Anne F. Van Loon, Kai Schröter, Philip J. Ward, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Nivedita Sairam, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, С. А. Агафонова, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Álvarez-Garretón, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Çavuş, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Ν. Daliakopoulos, Marleen de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Н. Л. Фролова, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego Alejandro Guzmán Arias, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ioniță, Maxim Kharlamov, Đào Nguyên Khôi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado‐Casimiro, Hong‐Yi Li, María Carmen Llasat, David Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew McKenzie, Alfonso Mejía, Eduardo Mário Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo‐Duc, Thi Thao Nguyen Huynh, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Hồng Quân Nguyễn, Pere Quintana Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md. Shibly Sadik, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjib Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, M.H.J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano‐Bigiarini, Günter Blöschl, Giuliano Di Baldassarre
• DOI: 10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5

Research Groups

• GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences, Section Hydrology (Germany)
• Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (Netherlands)
• Leichtweiss Institute for Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources, Technische Universität Braunschweig (Germany)
• University of California, Irvine (USA)
• Lomonosov Moscow State University (Russia)
• Center for Climate and Resilience Research (Chile)
• University of Saskatchewan, Global Institute for Water Security (Canada)
• Imperial College London (UK)
• University of Bristol (UK)
• Uppsala University, Department of Earth Sciences (Sweden)
• Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Technische Universität Wien (Austria)
• Department of Integrated Water Systems and Governance, IHE Delft (Netherlands)
• Multiple other international institutions across Europe, Asia, North and South America, and Africa (totaling 71 affiliations).

Short Summary

This study analyzes 45 global paired flood and drought events to assess the effectiveness of risk management, finding that while management generally reduces vulnerability, it often fails to mitigate the impacts of unprecedented, high-hazard events.

Objective

• To empirically analyze the combined effect of the three risk drivers (hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) and the overall effectiveness of risk management in reducing the impacts of floods and droughts globally.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global (45 paired events across all continents, covering diverse socioeconomic and hydroclimatic contexts).
• Temporal Scale: Events occurred between 1947 and 2019, with an average period of 16 years between the two events of a pair.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Comparative analysis based on the theoretical risk framework (Impact = f(Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability)). No complex hydrological simulation models were the primary tool for this comparative study.
• Data sources: A novel global dataset of 45 paired flood (26) and drought (19) events. Data were synthesized from detailed review-style reports and characterized using qualitative "indicators of change" (ranging from -2 for large decrease to +2 for large increase) for impact, drivers, and management shortcomings. The assignment of indicators was guided by a quality assurance protocol inspired by the Delphi Method, using sub-indicators (e.g., Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, flood discharge in m³ s⁻¹, monetary damage in Euros/dollars).

Main Results

• Management Effectiveness: Risk management generally leads to decreases in management shortcomings (71% of pairs) and vulnerability (80% of pairs).
• Driver Correlation (Floods): Changes in flood impacts are significantly and positively correlated with changes in Hazard (Spearman's r = 0.64, P ≤ 0.01), Exposure (r = 0.55, P ≤ 0.01), and Vulnerability (r = 0.60, P ≤ 0.01), suggesting all three drivers are equally important for impact reduction.
• Driver Correlation (Droughts): Changes in drought impacts are significantly correlated with changes in Hazard and Exposure, but not with Vulnerability, suggesting vulnerability reduction is less successful for droughts than for floods.
• The Challenge of Unprecedented Events: In 7 cases where the second event was classified as "unprecedented" (hazard indicator-of-change +2, meaning much more hazardous), the impact almost always increased, even if vulnerability had been reduced. This is often due to infrastructure (like levees or reservoirs) being exceeded.
• Success Stories: Two flood cases achieved lower impact despite increased hazard (+1). These successes were attributed to effective governance, high investments in integrated structural and non-structural measures, and improved early warning systems.

Contributions

• Provides the first large-scale empirical analysis (45 paired events) demonstrating the effectiveness and limitations of risk management strategies for both floods and droughts globally.
• Empirically confirms that for floods, reducing impact requires addressing all three risk drivers (hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) simultaneously.
• Identifies and quantifies the critical challenge posed by "unprecedented" high-hazard events, showing that current risk management, often implemented reactively, is insufficient to prevent increased impacts when design limits are exceeded.
• Offers concrete success factors (proactive governance, integrated investment, improved early warning) that allowed two case studies to reduce impact despite increased hazard.

Funding

• Alexander von Humboldt Foundation Professorship (BMBF)
• British Geological Survey’s Groundwater Resources Topic
• C3-RiskMed (no. PID2020-113638RB-C22, Spain)
• Centre for Climate and Resilience Research (no. ANID/FONDAP/15110009, Chile)
• CNES, TOSCA GRANT SWHYM
• DECIDER (BMBF, no. 01LZ1703G)
• Deltares research programme on water resources
• Dutch Research Council VIDI grant (no. 016.161.324)
• FLOOD (no. BMBF 01LP1903E, ClimXtreme)
• Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate
• Global Water Futures programme (University of Saskatchewan)
• GlobalHydroPressure (Water JPI)
• HUMID project (no. CGL2017-85687-R, AEI/FEDER, UE)
• HydroSocialExtremes (ERC Consolidator Grant no. 771678)
• MYRIAD-EU (European Union’s Horizon 2020, grant no. 101003276)
• PerfectSTORM (ERC-2020-StG 948601)
• Project EFA210/16 PIRAGUA (POCTEFA 2014–2020)
• Research project nos. ANID/FSEQ210001 and ANID/NSFC190018 (Chile)
• SECurITY (Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 787419)
• SPATE (FWF project I 4776-N, DFG research group FOR 2416)
• UK NERC LANDWISE (grant no. NE/R004668/1)
• UK NERC RAHU (grant no. NE/S013210/1)
• Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development (grant no. 105.06-2019.20)
• Vietnam National University–HCMC (grant no. C2018-48-01)

Citation

@article{Kreibich2022challenge,
  author = {Kreibich, Heidi and Loon, Anne F. Van and Schröter, Kai and Ward, Philip J. and Mazzoleni, Maurizio and Sairam, Nivedita and Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho and Агафонова, С. А. and AghaKouchak, Amir and Aksoy, Hafzullah and Álvarez-Garretón, Camila and Aznar, Blanca and Balkhi, Laila and Barendrecht, Marlies H. and Biancamaria, Sylvain and Bos-Burgering, Liduin and Bradley, Chris and Budiyono, Yus and Buytaert, Wouter and Capewell, Lucinda and Carlson, Hayley and Çavuş, Yonca and Couasnon, Anaïs and Coxon, Gemma and Daliakopoulos, Ioannis Ν. and Ruiter, Marleen de and Delus, Claire and Erfurt, Mathilde and Esposito, Giuseppe and François, Didier and Frappart, Frédéric and Freer, Jim and Фролова, Н. Л. and Gain, Animesh K. and Grillakis, Manolis and Grima, Jordi Oriol and Arias, Diego Alejandro Guzmán and Huning, Laurie S. and Ioniță, Monica and Kharlamov, Maxim and Khôi, Đào Nguyên and Kieboom, Natalie and Kireeva, Maria and Koutroulis, Aristeidis and Lavado‐Casimiro, Waldo and Li, Hong‐Yi and Llasat, María Carmen and Macdonald, David and Mård, Johanna and Mathew-Richards, Hannah and McKenzie, Andrew and Mejía, Alfonso and Mendiondo, Eduardo Mário and Mens, Marjolein and Mobini, Shifteh and Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna and Nagavciuc, Viorica and Ngo‐Duc, Thanh and Huynh, Thi Thao Nguyen and Nhi, Pham Thi Thao and Petrucci, Olga and Nguyễn, Hồng Quân and Quintana‐Seguí, Pere and Razavi, Saman and Ridolfi, Elena and Riegel, Jannik and Sadik, Md. Shibly and Savelli, Elisa and Sazonov, Alexey and Sharma, Sanjib and Sörensen, Johanna and Souza, Felipe Augusto Arguello and Stahl, Kerstin and Steinhausen, Max and Stoelzle, Michael and Szalińska, Wiwiana and Tang, Qiuhong and Tian, Fuqiang and Tokarczyk, Tamara and Tovar, Carolina and Tran, Thi Van Thu and Huijgevoort, M.H.J. van and Vliet, Michelle T. H. van and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Wagener, Thorsten and Wang, Yueling and Wendt, Doris E. and Wickham, Elliot and Yang, Long and Zambrano‐Bigiarini, Mauricio and Blöschl, Günter and Baldassarre, Giuliano Di},
  title = {The challenge of unprecedented floods and droughts in risk management},
  journal = {Nature},
  year = {2022},
  doi = {10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04917-5}
}

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