Requena et al. (2023) Assessment of climate change impact on maximum precipitation in Spain

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Hydrological Processes
• Year: 2023
• Date: 2023-01-01
• Authors: Ana I. Requena, A. Jiménez-Álvarez, Célia R. S. Garcia
• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.14803

Research Groups

[Not specified in the abstract]

Short Summary

This study assesses the impact of climate change on maximum precipitation in Spain for flood risk management, revealing that climate models generally perform well but show stronger increases in extreme precipitation for shorter durations, with accumulated maximum precipitation changes up to 35%.

Objective

• To assess the potential effect of climate change on maximum precipitation, considering various temporal intervals, for its incorporation into flood risk management in Spain, while accounting for uncertainty.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Spain (including all regions and Mediterranean regions).
• Temporal Scale: Daily annual maximum precipitation, various temporal intervals for flood risk management, and analysis of changes across different precipitation durations (including shorter durations).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Climate model ensemble (specific model names not provided).
• Data sources: Observations, climate model maximum precipitation series.

Main Results

• Climate model outcomes show large variability.
• The climate model ensemble generally exhibits suitable behavior regarding observations, accurately representing the seasonality of daily annual maximum precipitation across all regions.
• Observation-based statistics are mostly within the range of simulation-based statistics.
• Daily annual maximum precipitation is underestimated in Mediterranean regions, likely due to limitations in reproducing convective precipitation.
• Trends and changes intensify as precipitation duration decreases.
• A rise in torrentiality is observed.
• Relative changes in accumulated maximum precipitation reach up to 35%.
• The effect of climate change is stronger for extreme precipitation associated with short precipitation durations, attributed to a stronger scaling between extreme precipitation change and mean surface temperature increase for shorter durations.
• Statistical significance analysis of relative changes in quantile is crucial for attributing changes to climate change.
• The choice of statistical model is essential for identifying significant changes.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive methodology for assessing climate change effects on maximum precipitation, applicable to other case studies, by explicitly accounting for uncertainty.
• Quantifies the intensifying effect of climate change on extreme precipitation for shorter durations, with significant increases in accumulated maximum precipitation.
• Highlights the critical importance of analyzing statistical significance and appropriate statistical model choice for robust attribution of precipitation changes to climate change.
• Offers valuable insights for integrating climate change impacts into flood risk management strategies in Spain.

Funding

[Not specified in the abstract]

Citation

@article{Requena2023Assessment,
  author = {Requena, Ana I. and Jiménez-Álvarez, A. and Garcia, Célia R. S.},
  title = {Assessment of climate change impact on maximum precipitation in Spain},
  journal = {Hydrological Processes},
  year = {2023},
  doi = {10.1002/hyp.14803},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.14803}
}