Kreibich et al. (2023) Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts

Identification

• Journal: Earth system science data
• Year: 2023
• Authors: Heidi Kreibich, Kai Schröter, Giuliano Di Baldassarre, Anne F. Van Loon, Maurizio Mazzoleni, Guta Wakbulcho Abeshu, С. В. Агафонова, Amir AghaKouchak, Hafzullah Aksoy, Camila Álvarez-Garretón, Blanca Aznar, Laila Balkhi, Marlies H. Barendrecht, Sylvain Biancamaria, Liduin Bos-Burgering, Chris Bradley, Yus Budiyono, Wouter Buytaert, Lucinda Capewell, Hayley Carlson, Yonca Çavuş, Anaïs Couasnon, Gemma Coxon, Ioannis Ν. Daliakopoulos, Marleen de Ruiter, Claire Delus, Mathilde Erfurt, Giuseppe Esposito, Didier François, Frédéric Frappart, Jim Freer, Н. Л. Фролова, Animesh K. Gain, Manolis Grillakis, Jordi Oriol Grima, Diego Alejandro Guzmán Arias, Laurie S. Huning, Monica Ioniță, Maxim Kharlamov, Đào Nguyên Khôi, Natalie Kieboom, Maria Kireeva, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Waldo Lavado‐Casimiro, Hong‐Yi Li, María Carmen Llasat, David W. Macdonald, Johanna Mård, Hannah Mathew-Richards, Andrew N. J. McKenzie, Alfonso Mejía, Eduardo Mário Mendiondo, Marjolein Mens, Shifteh Mobini, Guilherme Samprogna Mohor, Viorica Nagavciuc, Thanh Ngo‐Duc, Huynh Thi Thao Nguyen, Pham Thi Thao Nhi, Olga Petrucci, Hồng Quân Nguyễn, Pere Quintana Seguí, Saman Razavi, Elena Ridolfi, Jannik Riegel, Md. Shibly Sadik, Nivedita Sairam, Elisa Savelli, Alexey Sazonov, Sanjeev Sharma, Johanna Sörensen, Felipe Augusto Arguello Souza, Kerstin Stahl, Max Steinhausen, Michael Stoelzle, Wiwiana Szalińska, Qiuhong Tang, Fuqiang Tian, Tamara Tokarczyk, Carolina Tovar, Thi Van Thu Tran, M.H.J. van Huijgevoort, Michelle T. H. van Vliet, Sergiy Vorogushyn, Thorsten Wagener, Yueling Wang, Doris E. Wendt, Elliot Wickham, Long Yang, Mauricio Zambrano‐Bigiarini, Philip J. Ward
• DOI: 10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023

Research Groups

• GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (Potsdam, Germany)
• Uppsala University, Centre of Natural Hazards and Disaster Science (CNDS) (Uppsala, Sweden)
• Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) (Amsterdam, Netherlands)
• University of Saskatchewan, Global Institute for Water Security (Saskatoon, Canada)
• University of California, Irvine (CA, USA)
• University of Freiburg (Freiburg, Germany)
• Lomonosov Moscow State University (Moscow, Russia)
• International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Panta Rhei Working Groups ("Changes in flood risk" and "Droughts in the Anthropocene")
• Large international collaboration involving over 60 authors from institutions across Europe, North America, South America, Asia, and Australia.

Short Summary

This paper presents the Panta Rhei benchmark dataset, a unique compilation of socio-hydrological data for 45 paired events (two floods or two droughts occurring in the same area) across 42 global study areas, designed to facilitate comparative analysis of changes in risk drivers and support socio-hydrological model development.

Objective

• To compile a comprehensive, empirical benchmark dataset of socio-hydrological variables for paired flood and drought events to better understand the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human–water systems that lead to changes in risk and impacts.
• To provide data suitable for exploratory analyses, attribution studies of impact changes, and the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 42 distinct study areas globally (catchment or regional scale), encompassing diverse socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions.
• Temporal Scale: Paired events mostly occurred between 1970 and 2019, with the time difference between the two events of a pair ranging from 1 to 71 years (average of 16 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: The dataset is designed to support the development and benchmarking of socio-hydrological models, particularly using methods like Bayesian inference, but no specific model was used to generate the primary data.
• Data sources: Data were collected via a large international expert collaboration (snowballing technique) and compiled using a structured template. Sources include:
  • Detailed review-style reports (3 to 18 pages long) describing events and key processes (risk management, hazard, exposure, vulnerability).
  • Key Data Table: Quantitative and qualitative variables assessing indicators for management shortcomings, hazard (e.g., precipitation intensity, storm surge, drought indices like SPI-12), exposure, vulnerability, and impacts (e.g., monetary damage, fatalities).
  • Data source quality categorization (scientific study, report, own analysis, newspaper article, expert judgment).
• Data Processing: Quality assurance followed the Delphi method, involving structured discussion and iterative review by a core group and data providers to ensure comparability between the two events of each pair.
• Indicators of Change: A secondary table was derived using a Likert scale (–2 to 2) to quantify the change between the first and second event for specific indicators (e.g., lack of awareness, hazard severity) and five summary indicators (management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, impacts).

Main Results

• The dataset comprises 45 paired events (26 flood pairs and 19 drought pairs) from 42 study areas across all continents.
• Data availability is generally high for indicators of change (86%–88% non-missing values), though data on indirect and intangible impacts are scarce for both floods and droughts.
• Analysis of the summary indicators of change across all paired events showed that a small decrease (43%) and no change (25%) were the most common outcomes.
• Changes in vulnerability and management shortcomings predominantly showed a decrease (improvement), while changes in hazard, exposure, and impact were more evenly distributed.
• Flood paired events showed a small decrease in exposure most commonly (38%), while drought paired events most commonly showed a small increase in exposure (53%).
• A large decrease in impacts was reported in five flood pairs, but no large decrease in impacts occurred in the collected drought pairs, where a small increase in impacts was most common (37%).

Contributions

• Unique Data Product: Provides the first comprehensive, empirical socio-hydrological benchmark dataset covering both floods and droughts globally, specifically structured around the "paired event" concept to minimize heterogeneity and enable attribution studies.
• Attribution and Comparative Analysis: The inclusion of comparable variables and indicators of change (especially the summary indicators) allows for cross-case comparative analyses to identify generic, transferable conclusions regarding the effectiveness of risk management and the attribution of impact changes.
• Socio-Hydrological Modeling: The dataset provides essential empirical data points (two points in time) for the development, calibration, and benchmarking of socio-hydrological models, addressing a key unsolved problem in hydrology (IAHS Panta Rhei initiative).

Funding

• European Research Council (ERC) (HydroSocialExtremes, PerfectSTORM)
• Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (VIDI grants)
• Center for Climate and Resilience Research (ANID/FONDAP/1522A0001)
• German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (RIESGOS, DECIDER, FLOOD/ClimXtreme)
• UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (CENTA, Groundwater Drought Initiative, MaRIUS, ENDOWS, RAHU, LANDWISE)
• US National Science Foundation (NSF)
• NASA
• NOAA
• Russian Science Foundation (project no. 19-77-10032)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)
• MSCA ETN System-Risk (grant 676027)
• Vietnam National Foundation for Science and Technology Development
• Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (Wolfson Research Merit Award, Humboldt Professorship)
• Deltares research program (Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate)
• Global Water Futures program (University of Saskatchewan)

Citation

@article{Kreibich2023Panta,
  author = {Kreibich, Heidi and Schröter, Kai and Baldassarre, Giuliano Di and Loon, Anne F. Van and Mazzoleni, Maurizio and Abeshu, Guta Wakbulcho and Агафонова, С. В. and AghaKouchak, Amir and Aksoy, Hafzullah and Álvarez-Garretón, Camila and Aznar, Blanca and Balkhi, Laila and Barendrecht, Marlies H. and Biancamaria, Sylvain and Bos-Burgering, Liduin and Bradley, Chris and Budiyono, Yus and Buytaert, Wouter and Capewell, Lucinda and Carlson, Hayley and Çavuş, Yonca and Couasnon, Anaïs and Coxon, Gemma and Daliakopoulos, Ioannis Ν. and Ruiter, Marleen de and Delus, Claire and Erfurt, Mathilde and Esposito, Giuseppe and François, Didier and Frappart, Frédéric and Freer, Jim and Фролова, Н. Л. and Gain, Animesh K. and Grillakis, Manolis and Grima, Jordi Oriol and Arias, Diego Alejandro Guzmán and Huning, Laurie S. and Ioniță, Monica and Kharlamov, Maxim and Khôi, Đào Nguyên and Kieboom, Natalie and Kireeva, Maria and Koutroulis, Aristeidis and Lavado‐Casimiro, Waldo and Li, Hong‐Yi and Llasat, María Carmen and Macdonald, David W. and Mård, Johanna and Mathew-Richards, Hannah and McKenzie, Andrew N. J. and Mejía, Alfonso and Mendiondo, Eduardo Mário and Mens, Marjolein and Mobini, Shifteh and Mohor, Guilherme Samprogna and Nagavciuc, Viorica and Ngo‐Duc, Thanh and Nguyen, Huynh Thi Thao and Nhi, Pham Thi Thao and Petrucci, Olga and Nguyễn, Hồng Quân and Quintana‐Seguí, Pere and Razavi, Saman and Ridolfi, Elena and Riegel, Jannik and Sadik, Md. Shibly and Sairam, Nivedita and Savelli, Elisa and Sazonov, Alexey and Sharma, Sanjeev and Sörensen, Johanna and Souza, Felipe Augusto Arguello and Stahl, Kerstin and Steinhausen, Max and Stoelzle, Michael and Szalińska, Wiwiana and Tang, Qiuhong and Tian, Fuqiang and Tokarczyk, Tamara and Tovar, Carolina and Tran, Thi Van Thu and Huijgevoort, M.H.J. van and Vliet, Michelle T. H. van and Vorogushyn, Sergiy and Wagener, Thorsten and Wang, Yueling and Wendt, Doris E. and Wickham, Elliot and Yang, Long and Zambrano‐Bigiarini, Mauricio and Ward, Philip J.},
  title = {Panta Rhei benchmark dataset: socio-hydrological data of paired events of floods and droughts},
  journal = {Earth system science data},
  year = {2023},
  doi = {10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-2009-2023}
}

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