Mahdi et al. (2025) Intensifying Drought Patterns and Agricultural Water Stress in Erbil Governorate, Iraq: A Spatiotemporal Climate Analysis

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Global Challenges
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-08
• Authors: Karrar Mahdi, Heman Abdulkhaleq A. Gaznayee, Payman Hussein Aliehsan, Sara H. Zaki, Dawod R. Keya, Kawa K. Hakzi, Fuad Alqrinawi, Michel Riksen
• DOI: 10.1002/gch2.202500491

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study assesses drought impacts in Erbil, Iraq, over 28 years using a soil-water-balance framework and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), identifying recurring drought events, severe stress on winter wheat, and high precipitation variability, underscoring the need for climate-resilient planning.

Objective

• Assess the impacts of drought in Erbil, Iraq, using 28 years of data from its southern, central, and northern regions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Erbil, Iraq (southern, central, and northern regions).
• Temporal Scale: 28 years of data, covering drought events in 1998-2000, 2007-2009, 2020-2021, and projected anomalies for 2024-2025.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Soil-water-balance framework, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), ARIMA (1,0,1) models.
• Data sources: Precipitation, reference evapotranspiration (ETo), crop evapotranspiration (ETc), and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) measures. Specific sources (e.g., satellite, observation) are not detailed in the text.

Main Results

• Basin-wide droughts were identified by SPI in 1998-2000, 2007-2009, 2020-2021, with significant negative anomalies projected for 2024-2025.
• "Near-normal" drought conditions are most common, occurring in approximately 57% to 79% of the time, interspersed with occasional moderate to extreme events.
• Winter wheat experiences severe stress during dry years, with crop evapotranspiration (ETc) reaching 200-250 mm per month and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) dropping to 15-30 mm per month, leading to June deficits of nearly 277 mm.
• Annual precipitation exhibits high variability, with coefficients of variation (CV) ranging from 26.1% to 51.7%.
• ARIMA (1,0,1) models suggest weak persistence and zone-specific accuracy, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of 37.8% in the south, 33.9% in the central region, and 28.8% in the north.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive assessment of drought impacts and frequency in Erbil, Iraq, utilizing a multi-indicator approach including a soil-water-balance framework, SPI, and ARIMA models.
• Quantifies the severe stress on winter wheat and highlights the high variability in annual precipitation, offering critical insights for developing climate-resilient water and agricultural planning strategies in the region.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Mahdi2025Intensifying,
  author = {Mahdi, Karrar and Gaznayee, Heman Abdulkhaleq A. and Aliehsan, Payman Hussein and Zaki, Sara H. and Keya, Dawod R. and Hakzi, Kawa K. and Alqrinawi, Fuad and Riksen, Michel},
  title = {Intensifying Drought Patterns and Agricultural Water Stress in Erbil Governorate, Iraq: A Spatiotemporal Climate Analysis},
  journal = {Global Challenges},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/gch2.202500491},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/gch2.202500491}
}