Patidar et al. (2025) Integrating Field Observations, Remote Sensing and Modelling for the Assessment of Bhilangana Lake, Central Himalaya, India

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Hydrological Processes
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-01
• Authors: Pawan Patidar, Amit Kumar, Arshad Reza, Kalachand Sain, Umesh K. Haritashya, Naresh Kumar, Aditya Mishra, Akshaya Verma, Sourabh Anand
• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.70308

Research Groups

The abstract does not specify the main research groups, labs, or departments involved.

Short Summary

This study investigates the evolution of Bhilangana Lake and associated glacier changes in the Himalaya from 1968 to 2025, revealing significant lake expansion driven by rising temperatures and quantifying the high risk of a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) with substantial downstream impacts.

Objective

• To examine the evolution of the proglacial Bhilangana Lake and associated glacier changes (thinning and retreat) between 1968 and 2025.
• To assess the potential risk and impacts of a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) from Bhilangana Lake.
• To identify the primary climatic drivers of lake expansion and accelerated glacier melt.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Bhilangana Lake (approximately 0.37 km² at approximately 4750 m above sea level), surrounding glaciers in the Himalaya, and downstream areas (potential inundation of approximately 6.8 km²).
• Temporal Scale: Observed and modeled period from 1968 to 2025, with climate change projections extending to the end of the century.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Hydrodynamic modelling (for GLOF scenarios), CMIP6 projections (for future climate change).
• Data sources: Satellite imagery, field measurements, bias-corrected ERA5 reanalysis data.

Main Results

• Bhilangana Lake expanded exponentially from approximately 0.12 km² in 2001 to an estimated 0.37 km² in 2025, with an estimated volume of 10.7 × 10⁶ m³.
• A potential GLOF could release a peak discharge of approximately 3645 m³/s with an average flow velocity of approximately 12 m/s, inundating an area of approximately 6.8 km² downstream.
• Rising mean, maximum, and minimum air temperatures were identified as primary drivers, increasing at rates of 0.028 °C/year, 0.052 °C/year, and 0.05 °C/year, respectively, particularly during July–August.
• The zero-degree isotherm is shifting to higher elevations.
• Bias-corrected ERA5 data showed good agreement at high altitudes, confirming its reliability for climate change analysis in the region.
• Several over-deepening sites were mapped as potential future glacial lakes.
• CMIP6 projections indicate substantial glacial and hydrological changes with a warming trend of approximately 0.8 °C/decade, further elevating GLOF risk by the century's end.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed, multi-decadal analysis (1968-2025) of the evolution of a specific proglacial lake (Bhilangana Lake) and its associated glacier changes in the Himalaya.
• Quantifies the current and future Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) risk from Bhilangana Lake, including peak discharge, flow velocity, and potential inundation area.
• Identifies specific climatic drivers (rising air temperatures, zero-degree isotherm shift) responsible for lake expansion and accelerated glacier melt.
• Maps potential future glacial lake formation sites, contributing to proactive risk assessment.
• Integrates diverse methodologies including satellite imagery, field measurements, hydrodynamic modeling, and climate reanalysis/projections to provide a comprehensive assessment.

Funding

The abstract does not specify the funding sources for this research.

Citation

@article{Patidar2025Integrating,
  author = {Patidar, Pawan and Kumar, Amit and Reza, Arshad and Sain, Kalachand and Haritashya, Umesh K. and Kumar, Naresh and Mishra, Aditya and Verma, Akshaya and Anand, Sourabh},
  title = {Integrating Field Observations, Remote Sensing and Modelling for the Assessment of Bhilangana Lake, Central Himalaya, India},
  journal = {Hydrological Processes},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/hyp.70308},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70308}
}