Zheng et al. (2025) Deconstructing the Effects of Climate and Phenology on Hydrological Processes: A Case Study From an Inland Basin in Central Asia

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Hydrological Processes
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-26
• Authors: Lilin Zheng, Dahui Li, Ling Wang, Ruishan Chen, Jianhua Xu
• DOI: 10.1002/hyp.70342

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study quantified the individual contributions of temperature, precipitation, and phenological shifts to evapotranspiration and streamflow in the Kashi Basin, Central Asia, using an eco-hydrological model. It found that phenological changes, particularly a longer growing season, had impacts on hydrological processes comparable to those of temperature and precipitation changes, emphasizing their critical role under warming conditions.

Objective

• To quantify the contributions of temperature, precipitation, and phenological shifts to evapotranspiration (ET) and streamflow in the inland Kashi Basin (KSB) of Central Asia, addressing the uncertainty of whether phenological changes outweigh climatic factors in influencing hydrological processes.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Inland Kashi Basin (KSB) of Central Asia.
• Temporal Scale: 2001–2020, with 2001 serving as the baseline year.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: An eco-hydrological model with detailed physical mechanisms.
• Data sources: Not explicitly specified in the abstract, but implied from observed changes in temperature, precipitation, and phenology.

Main Results

• During 2001–2020, compared to 2001, average daytime temperatures increased by 0.31 °C and nighttime temperatures by 0.15 °C, leading to a mean increase in ET of 1.13 mm/year and a decrease in runoff of 0.66 mm/year.
• A mean annual precipitation increase of 14.89 mm/year resulted in a 9.17 mm/year increase in ET and a 4.36 mm/year increase in runoff.
• The growing season lengthened by an average of 10.24 days, causing a mean increase in ET of 10.30 mm/year and a decrease in runoff of 8.65 mm/year.
• The effects of phenological shifts on hydrological processes were found to be comparable in magnitude to those of temperature and precipitation changes.
• Earlier spring phenology intensified ET in late spring and early summer, and sustained runoff reductions throughout the summer, potentially exacerbating summer vegetation degradation.

Contributions

• Quantified the distinct contributions of temperature, precipitation, and phenological shifts to evapotranspiration and streamflow, addressing a critical gap in understanding.
• Highlighted the significant and comparable role of dynamic phenological changes in shaping hydrological processes under warming conditions.
• Emphasized the necessity of integrating phenology dynamics into future climate-hydrology models to improve projections and management strategies.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Zheng2025Deconstructing,
  author = {Zheng, Lilin and Li, Dahui and Wang, Ling and Chen, Ruishan and Xu, Jianhua},
  title = {Deconstructing the Effects of Climate and Phenology on Hydrological Processes: A Case Study From an Inland Basin in Central Asia},
  journal = {Hydrological Processes},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/hyp.70342},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.70342}
}