Yin et al. (2025) Characteristics and Attribution of Winter Extreme Cold Indices in China

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-07
• Authors: Hong Yin, Daquan Zhang, Siyan Dong, Qing Chang, Shuyan Li
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70086

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided text.

Short Summary

This study analyzes winter extreme cold indices in China from 1961 to 2023, finding a general weakening trend driven by anthropogenic forcing and modulated by the Arctic Oscillation.

Objective

• To analyze the characteristics, driving factors, and future projections of winter extreme cold indices—specifically the intensity of cold extremes (TNn), frost days (FD), and ice days (ID)—across China.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: National scale (China), with regional analysis focusing on Eastern, Northeastern, and Western China.
• Temporal Scale: 1961 to 2023.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 climate model simulations.
• Data sources: Observational data and atmospheric circulation indices.

Main Results

• General Trend: A general weakening of winter cold extremes across China since 1961.
• Regional Variations:
  • Eastern China: Declining trends in TNn, FD, and ID have decelerated in recent decades.
  • Northeastern China: Cold extremes have intensified since the 1990s.
  • Western China: Continued weakening of cold extremes, though the rate of decline has slowed.
• Attribution: Anthropogenic forcing has significantly contributed to the weakening of winter cold extremes in eastern China.
• Driving Factors: The negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and a strengthened Siberian High are associated with increased intensity of cold extremes, as well as higher numbers of frost and ice days in eastern China.
• Future Projections: Anticipated continued weakening of extreme cold intensity and a persistent decline in frost and ice days.

Contributions

The study provides a detailed regional and interdecadal assessment of winter cold extremes in China, distinguishing between long-term anthropogenic trends and short-term natural variability driven by the Arctic Oscillation and the Siberian High.

Funding

Not specified in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Yin2025Characteristics,
  author = {Yin, Hong and Zhang, Daquan and Dong, Siyan and Chang, Qing and Li, Shuyan},
  title = {Characteristics and Attribution of Winter Extreme Cold Indices in China},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70086},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70086}
}