Berényi et al. (2025) Validation of Euro‐ CORDEX Simulations Focusing on Mean and Extreme Precipitation in European Plain Areas

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-08-23
• Authors: Alexandra Berényi, Judit Bartholy, Rita Pongrácz
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70089

Research Groups

The abstract does not specify individual research groups, but the study involves the Euro-CORDEX initiative, implying a collaborative effort among various climate modeling centers.

Short Summary

This study assesses the performance of ten historical Euro-CORDEX simulations against observational data for extreme precipitation indices across 14 European plain regions from 1970 to 2005. It finds a general overestimation of precipitation with seasonal and regional biases, but concludes that the models are capable of reproducing historical patterns and the ensemble is adequate for future climate analysis.

Objective

• To assess the performance of ten historical Euro-CORDEX simulations, using different combinations of Global and Regional Climate Models, against the E-OBS dataset for 11 climate indices (8 associated with extreme precipitation events) across 14 European plain regions.
• To establish a model performance scoring system to rank and compare simulations, and to test the sensitivity of model evaluation to reference data uncertainty using high-resolution datasets.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: 14 plain regions across Europe, defined as relatively flat areas below 200 m elevation. Data interpolated to a 0.1° regular grid.
• Temporal Scale: Daily temporal resolution for the period 1970–2005.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Ten historical Euro-CORDEX simulations, comprising different combinations of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs).
• Data sources:
  • E-OBS dataset: Derived from meteorological station measurements across Europe, used for validation.
  • CARPATCLIM: High-resolution dataset used for sensitivity assessment in specific regions.
  • ROCADA: High-resolution dataset used for sensitivity assessment in specific regions.
• Analysis: Calculation of 11 climate indices (8 related to extreme precipitation), evaluation using four statistical metrics, and establishment of a model performance scoring system.

Main Results

• Euro-CORDEX simulations show a clear overestimation of both non-extreme and extreme precipitation, with distinct seasonal biases.
• A general overestimation of precipitation is found across the domains in winter, while a substantial underestimation is identified in the south-eastern regions.
• Different statistical metrics yielded varying rankings of the models, preventing the establishment of a single evident order of model simulations.
• The use of high-resolution datasets (CARPATCLIM and ROCADA) confirmed the importance of incorporating additional observational data, especially in areas with limited station coverage.
• Despite biases, the models are generally capable of reproducing the patterns of historical precipitation conditions, and the ensemble is considered adequate for analyzing future climate.

Contributions

• Development of a model performance scoring system to rank and compare Euro-CORDEX simulations, enhancing the reliability of climate projections for targeted adaptation planning.
• Identification of specific regional and seasonal biases in Euro-CORDEX precipitation simulations.
• Demonstration of the importance of high-resolution observational datasets for model evaluation, particularly in regions with sparse station coverage, to reduce uncertainty in climate projections.
• Provision of insights into the suitability of the Euro-CORDEX ensemble for future climate analysis despite identified biases.

Funding

The abstract does not provide information regarding specific funding projects, programs, or reference codes.

Citation

@article{Berényi2025Validation,
  author = {Berényi, Alexandra and Bartholy, Judit and Pongrácz, Rita},
  title = {Validation of Euro‐ <scp>CORDEX</scp> Simulations Focusing on Mean and Extreme Precipitation in European Plain Areas},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70089},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70089}
}