Wu et al. (2025) Evaluation of Present and Future Relationships Between Daily Precipitation and Temperature in Eastern China

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-22
• Authors: Yanjuan Wu, Wei Zheng Yuan, Shuangye Wu, Yanwei Sun, Jiahong Wen, Hengzhi Hu, Ivan D. Haigh, Shanshan Zheng, Naicheng Wu
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70168

Research Groups

Not explicitly stated in the abstract. The study utilizes the CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble and ERA5 reanalysis datasets.

Short Summary

This study examines historical and future precipitation-temperature relationships over eastern China, assessing the performance of CMIP6 models and ERA5 reanalysis, and projecting increased sensitivity of extreme precipitation to warming, highlighting rising flood risks.

Objective

• To examine the precipitation-temperature relationships in the history (1971–2000) and future (2071–2100) over eastern China, and to assess the performance of CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble and ERA5 reanalysis datasets in simulating these dynamics.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Eastern China, with specific focus on Northeast China and Southeast China.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1971–2000) and future projections (2071–2100) under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble (MME).
• Data sources: ERA5 reanalysis dataset, observed precipitation and temperature data (for historical assessment).

Main Results

• Model Performance:
  • ERA5 overestimates precipitation at moderate temperatures (-10°C to 27°C) and underestimates it at low and high temperatures. It overestimates observed scaling rates, approaching the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) rate (7%/°C).
  • CMIP6 MME consistently underestimates mean and extreme precipitation across all temperature bins and underestimates scaling rates, aligning with sub-CC rates.
• Precipitation-Temperature Relationships (Historical 1971–2000):
  • Both datasets reproduce observed increasing peak structures, where precipitation intensity increases with temperature up to a peak, then declines at higher temperatures due to reduced relative humidity.
  • Observed scaling rates for precipitation range from 3.90%/°C to 5.89%/°C in Northeast China and 3.64%/°C to 5.63%/°C in Southeast China.
  • Scaling rates for extreme precipitation exceed those for mean precipitation, showing higher sensitivity for more extreme events.
• Future Projections (2071–2100 under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5):
  • Projections show similar increasing peak structures.
  • Scaling rates are projected to exceed MME historical values. In Northeast China, rates range from 5.12%/°C to 7.03%/°C, significantly higher than Southeast China's 2.15%/°C to 3.96%/°C.
  • Scaling rates for extreme precipitation are projected to be even higher, indicating increased sensitivity to climate change.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive assessment of CMIP6 MME and ERA5 reanalysis performance in simulating mean and extreme precipitation across temperature bins over eastern China.
• Quantifies historical and future projected scaling rates for both mean and extreme precipitation, highlighting regional differences within eastern China.
• Identifies distinct biases in reanalysis and climate models regarding precipitation-temperature relationships.
• Underscores the increasing sensitivity of extreme precipitation to warming in future climate scenarios, emphasizing rising flood risks and the need for improved climate models.

Funding

Not available in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Wu2025Evaluation,
  author = {Wu, Yanjuan and Yuan, Wei Zheng and Wu, Shuangye and Sun, Yanwei and Wen, Jiahong and Hu, Hengzhi and Haigh, Ivan D. and Zheng, Shanshan and Wu, Naicheng},
  title = {Evaluation of Present and Future Relationships Between Daily Precipitation and Temperature in Eastern China},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70168},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70168}
}