Li et al. (2025) The Joint Occurrence Probability of Compound Drought and Heatwaves: A Copula‐Based Multivariate Analysis of Duration and Severity in China

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-03
• Authors: Xin Li, Suyan Wang, Fan Wang, Ying Huang, Jiayao Li
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70176

Research Groups

Not explicitly detailed in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study develops a two-dimensional joint function integrating duration and severity to assess the comprehensive risk of Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) events in China. It reveals that the impacts of duration and severity on CDHW joint occurrence probability vary significantly across different regions of China, with severity often having a greater influence on extreme events.

Objective

• To construct a two-dimensional joint function based on the duration and severity of Compound Drought and Heatwave (CDHW) events to assess their joint occurrence probability under diverse scenarios in China.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: China, with regional analysis including North China, Northeast China, western Northwest China, Jianghuai, South China, Southwest China, eastern Northwest China, and the Tibetan Plateau.
• Temporal Scale: CDHW event durations (e.g., 3 days, 5–7 days, exceeding 7 days); specific event analysis for 1997.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: A two-dimensional joint function based on the duration and severity of CDHWs; bivariate joint function for assessing compound characteristics.
• Data sources: Not explicitly detailed in the abstract, but implies historical climate data for CDHW events in China.

Main Results

• For China as a whole, changes in the severity threshold had a greater impact on extreme CDHWs.
• The joint occurrence probability of severe CDHWs (duration exceeding 7 days and severity surpassing the 80th, 90th, or 95th percentile) was more sensitive to severity.
• Conditional probability rose more rapidly for short-term events (3 days) than for long-term events (5–7 days).
• When CDHW duration exceeded 7 days and severity exceeded different thresholds, the joint occurrence probability ranged from 2% to 6%.
• Regionally, extreme CDHWs in North China, Northeast China, and western Northwest China were more strongly influenced by duration.
• Jianghuai, South China, Southwest China, eastern Northwest China, and the Tibetan Plateau were more prone to longer-lasting extreme CDHWs; in these areas, changing the severity threshold had a greater impact on the extremity of events lasting more than 7 days.
• In North China in 1997, the longest CDHW had joint return periods exceeding 1000 years when both duration and severity exceeded thresholds, and over 500 years when either exceeded thresholds.

Contributions

• Advances multi-dimensional risk assessment by simultaneously integrating duration and severity through a novel bivariate joint function.
• Provides a comprehensive multi-dimensional framework for assessing the compound characteristics of CDHWs, moving beyond individual variables or specific aspects.
• Demonstrates the significant regional variations in the impacts of duration and severity on the joint probability of CDHWs across China.

Funding

Not detailed in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Li2025Joint,
  author = {Li, Xin and Wang, Suyan and Wang, Fan and Huang, Ying and Li, Jiayao},
  title = {The Joint Occurrence Probability of Compound Drought and Heatwaves: A Copula‐Based Multivariate Analysis of Duration and Severity in China},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70176},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70176}
}