Ahmed et al. (2025) Drought Dynamics From Meteorological Stress to Agricultural Impacts Using Physically‐Based Remote Sensing Indices in the Horn of Africa

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-17
• Authors: N. K. Ahmed, Shuanggen Jin
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70178

Research Groups

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Short Summary

This study analyzed drought propagation, its impacts on vegetation and crop productivity, and recovery dynamics in the Horn of Africa (HOA) from 2000 to 2022 using a novel integrated framework of remote sensing indices. It identified eastern and southeastern HOA as severe drought hotspots with significant agricultural losses and prolonged recovery times, offering recommendations for mitigation.

Objective

• To analyze drought propagation and its impacts on vegetation and crop productivity, with a specific focus on recovery dynamics, in the Horn of Africa (HOA) over the period 2000–2022.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Horn of Africa (HOA), with specific focus on eastern and southeastern HOA, Somalia, and Ethiopia.
• Temporal Scale: 2000–2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Drought Propagation Index (DPI), Crop Stress Index (CSI), Soil Moisture Deficit (SMD), Water Deficit Index (WDI), Drought Recovery and Rate Index (DRRI). The performance was evaluated against the conventional Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI).
• Data sources: Physically based remote sensing indices.

Main Results

• The eastern and southeastern HOA were identified as major drought hotspots, experiencing severe droughts 70%–100% of the time with worsening temporal trends.
• The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) was strongly correlated with the Drought Propagation Index (DPI) (r = 0.67, p < 0.05).
• Vegetation indices showed significant reductions during droughts, with DPI positively correlating with NDVI (0.56) and EVI (0.54).
• Crop production was reduced by 30%–35% in Somalia, particularly for maize and sorghum, while Ethiopia showed more resistance due to irrigation.
• The mean recovery time exceeded 2 months during the 2010 and 2016 droughts in southeastern HOA, indicating low resilience, whereas northern areas recovered faster.

Contributions

• Development and integration of a novel framework comprising a suite of physically based remote sensing indices (DPI, CSI, SMD, WDI, DRRI) for comprehensive analysis of drought propagation, impacts, and recovery dynamics.
• Provides a validated approach for capturing drought propagation and agricultural impacts, offering practical recommendations for drought mitigation, drought-resistant crops, and adaptive resource management in vulnerable regions.

Funding

Not specified in the provided abstract.

Citation

@article{Ahmed2025Drought,
  author = {Ahmed, N. K. and Jin, Shuanggen},
  title = {Drought Dynamics From Meteorological Stress to Agricultural Impacts Using Physically‐Based Remote Sensing Indices in the Horn of Africa},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70178},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70178}
}