Muzammal et al. (2025) Exploring the Links Between Variations in Snow Cover Area and Climatic Variables Across the Upper Indus Basin Under a Changing Climate

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-25
• Authors: Hafsa Muzammal, Muhammad Zaman, Jaehak Jeong, Kashif Mehmood, Syed Aftab Wajid
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70195

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study developed an ARIMA model to predict daily Snow Cover Area (SCA) in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) using MODIS satellite data and correlated these predictions with future climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5), revealing a significant decline in SCA, particularly under higher emission scenarios, with notable regional variations.

Objective

• To examine daily snow cover changes in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) using satellite imagery, develop an Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict Snow Cover Area (SCA), and correlate predicted SCA with climate change variables under future Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios to understand impacts on water resources.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Upper Indus Basin (UIB), including sub-basins such as Astore, Zanskar, Shigar, Shingo, Shyok, Gilgit, Hunza, and Indus_Downstream.
• Temporal Scale:
  • Observation Period: MODIS Aqua (2002–2022), MODIS Terra (2001–2022).
  • Model Calibration: 2017–2020.
  • Model Validation: 2021–2023.
  • Prediction/Scenario Period: Future projections under SSP scenarios (specific years not provided in abstract).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model (specifically (0,1,1)(3,1,1) iteration).
  • Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5.
• Data sources:
  • Satellite imagery: Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Aqua and Terra (accessed via Google Earth Engine) for Snow Cover Area (SCA).
  • Reanalysis/Projection data: NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Global Daily Downscaled Projections for climate change variables (precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature).

Main Results

• The ARIMA model demonstrated strong agreement between observed and simulated SCA, with R² values of 0.72 for calibration (2017–2020) and 0.84 for validation (2021–2023).
• Predicted SCA showed a significant decline under future climate scenarios.
• Moderate negative correlations (r = -0.82 to -0.72) were found between SCA and temperature (implied) under SSP1-2.6.
• Stronger negative correlations (r = -0.99 to -0.81) were found between SCA and temperature (implied) under SSP5-8.5.
• Precipitation showed a non-significant correlation with SCA (r = 0.14 ± 0.41 under SSP1-2.6; r = 0.11 ± 0.52 under SSP5-8.5), despite decreasing snow cover percentage.
• Regionally, Astore, Zanskar, Shigar, and Shingo sub-basins exhibited significant SCA reductions (Kendall's tau = -0.585 ± -0.002; p = 0.036 ± < 0.0001).
• Shyok, Gilgit, and Hunza sub-basins showed significant SCA increases (Kendall's tau = 0.45 ± 0.67; p ≤ 0.0001).
• The Indus_Downstream sub-basin showed a non-significant decreasing trend in SCA (Kendall's tau = -0.002; p = 0.961).

Contributions

• Provides a robust ARIMA model for daily SCA prediction in the UIB using long-term MODIS data.
• Quantifies the projected decline in SCA under different climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and its correlation with temperature and precipitation.
• Highlights significant regional variations in SCA trends within the UIB, identifying areas of both reduction and increase.
• Emphasizes the critical implications of uncertain SCA predictions for runoff, hydropower generation, and freshwater storage in high-altitude regions.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Muzammal2025Exploring,
  author = {Muzammal, Hafsa and Zaman, Muhammad and Jeong, Jaehak and Mehmood, Kashif and Wajid, Syed Aftab},
  title = {Exploring the Links Between Variations in Snow Cover Area and Climatic Variables Across the Upper Indus Basin Under a Changing Climate},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70195},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70195}
}