Hibbert et al. (2025) Future Projections of Sea Surface Temperature ( SST ) in the MDR and Wider Caribbean Region: Utilising CMIP6 GCM Ensembles

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-05
• Authors: Keneshia Hibbert, Frederick Boakye Oppong, Thomas M. Smith, Jorge E. González
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70206

Research Groups

Not available from the abstract.

Short Summary

This study evaluates CMIP6 global climate models' performance in simulating and projecting sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the Caribbean and tropical Main Developing Region, particularly during the Late Rainfall Season. The models robustly reproduce historical SSTs and project significant future warming with a distinct spatial gradient, providing a foundation for climate impact understanding and adaptation planning.

Objective

• To evaluate the performance of CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) in simulating and projecting sea surface temperature (SST) variations across the Caribbean and the tropical Main Developing Region (MDR), with a particular focus on the Late Rainfall Season (August to November).
• To assess SST projections under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Caribbean Sea, tropical Main Developing Region (MDR), Gulf of Mexico, western Atlantic, eastern basin.
• Temporal Scale: Historical period (1982–2011), mid-century (2036–2065), late-century (2071–2100), Late Rainfall Season (August to November), annual.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Suite of 14 CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs), multi-model ensemble mean.
• Data sources: NOAA Optimum Interpolation SST (OISST) dataset (for model validation).

Main Results

• CMIP6 models demonstrated robust performance in reproducing historical SSTs, with Pearson correlation coefficients (R) of 0.84 for both the Late Rainfall Season and annual periods, capturing over 71% of observed SST variability.
• A low root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.17 °C further confirmed the models' fidelity in historical SST simulation.
• Projected SST trends indicate pronounced warming in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
• Mid-century (2036–2065) projections show increases during the Late Rainfall Season, with more dramatic warming by late-century (2071–2100), especially under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
• A spatial gradient of warming is evident, with stronger warming projected in the western Atlantic and a relatively cooler trend in the eastern basin.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive evaluation of CMIP6 models for regional SST dynamics in a climatically sensitive and socio-economically important region.
• Offers reliable future SST projections for the Caribbean and broader tropical Atlantic, combining model validation with future scenarios.
• Establishes a foundation for understanding SST-driven climate impacts and supports informed adaptation planning for regional rainfall regimes, hurricane characteristics, and marine ecosystems.

Funding

Not available from the abstract.

Citation

@article{Hibbert2025Future,
  author = {Hibbert, Keneshia and Oppong, Frederick Boakye and Smith, Thomas M. and González, Jorge E.},
  title = {Future Projections of Sea Surface Temperature ( <scp>SST</scp> ) in the <scp>MDR</scp> and Wider Caribbean Region: Utilising <scp>CMIP6 GCM</scp> Ensembles},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70206},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70206}
}