Ávila-Díaz et al. (2025) Projections of Atmospheric Moisture Transport Over South America in a Changing Climate

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-28
• Authors: Alvaro Ávila-Díaz, Roger Rodrigues Torres, Benjamín Quesada, Laís Rosa Oliveira, Alejandro Uribe, Paola A. Arias, Murilo Ruv Lemes, Cristian Felipe Zuluaga, Wilmar L. Cerón
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70207

Research Groups

[Information not available in the abstract.]

Short Summary

This study projects future atmospheric moisture transport over South America using CMIP6 models and ERA5 data, revealing significant basin-level variations in Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux (VIMF) and its convergence (VIMFC) under different SSP scenarios, with implications for regional precipitation regimes and water resource management.

Objective

• To investigate future projections of atmospheric moisture transport over South America, focusing on Vertically Integrated Moisture Flux (VIMF) and its convergence (VIMFC), and to analyze these patterns across 27 hydrological basins under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: South America, with a detailed analysis of 27 hydrological basins, including specific regions like northern Chile, eastern Brazil, La Plata, Magdalena, Peru Pacific Coast, North Chile Pacific Coast, and East Brazil's South Atlantic Coast.
• Temporal Scale: Future projections for the period 2071–2100, compared to a baseline period of 1985–2014.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: 17 CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs).
• Data sources: High-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data.

Main Results

• Under SSP5-8.5, northern Chile and eastern Brazil show increased moisture divergence.
• Basins such as La Plata and Magdalena exhibit stronger moisture convergence.
• The Peru Pacific Coast basin records the highest annual convergence (4.98 mm day⁻¹).
• The Magdalena basin shows significant annual convergence (2.25 mm day⁻¹).
• The North Chile Pacific Coast and East Brazil's South Atlantic Coast basins show the largest annual divergences (-4.54 mm day⁻¹ and -2.99 mm day⁻¹, respectively).
• High model agreement across scenarios enhances the reliability of these projections.

Contributions

• Provides a novel basin-level analysis of atmospheric moisture dynamics, directly linking changes in moisture transport and convergence to potential shifts in precipitation regimes.
• Offers critical insights for water resource management, agriculture, and energy planning across South America.
• Serves as a valuable resource for developing climate adaptation strategies, particularly in high-impact regions like northern Argentina, the La Plata Basin, and eastern Brazil.

Funding

[Information not available in the abstract.]

Citation

@article{ÁvilaDíaz2025Projections,
  author = {Ávila-Díaz, Alvaro and Torres, Roger Rodrigues and Quesada, Benjamín and Oliveira, Laís Rosa and Uribe, Alejandro and Arias, Paola A. and Lemes, Murilo Ruv and Zuluaga, Cristian Felipe and Cerón, Wilmar L.},
  title = {Projections of Atmospheric Moisture Transport Over South America in a Changing Climate},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70207},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70207}
}