Fotso‐Nguemo et al. (2025) Severity of Compound Precipitation and Temperature Extreme Events Over Africa at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming Levels

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-12
• Authors: Thierry C. Fotso‐Nguemo, Arona Diédhiou, Gabriel Fotso‐Kamga, Ibrahima Diba, Moctar Camara, Roméo S. Tanessong, Derbetini A. Vondou
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70215

Research Groups

• COordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-CORE)
• Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE)

Short Summary

This study investigates how increasing global warming levels affect the variability of compound dry/warm and wet/warm extreme events over Africa. It finds that a 0.5 °C increase in global warming (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) significantly increases the frequency, duration, and affected area of these compound events, particularly near the Equator and in specific sub-regions of Africa.

Objective

• To explore the response of the variability of dry and warm, as well as wet and warm, modes of compound precipitation and temperature extreme events over Africa to increasing global warming levels (GWLs).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Continental Africa, with specific focus on countries around the Equator, West Africa, Central Africa, South-West Africa, and South-East Africa.
• Temporal Scale: Comparison of climate states at different global warming levels (specifically, the change from 1.5 °C to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Ensemble mean of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) embedded in CORDEX-CORE.
• Data sources: Climate model simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario RCP8.5.

Main Results

• A 0.5 °C increase in global warming (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) is projected to induce a 3-fold increase in the frequency of occurrence and a 2-fold increase in the duration of compound dry/warm and wet/warm extreme events over countries located around the Equator.
• A significant increase of approximately up to 13% in the area extent affected by these compound events is projected over West, Central, South-West, and South-East Africa.
• Countries in these sub-regions are expected to experience more severe droughts over larger areas due to the combined effect of reduced precipitation and warmer temperatures.

Contributions

• Quantifies the specific impacts of a 0.5 °C increment in global warming (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) on the frequency, duration, and spatial extent of compound precipitation and temperature extremes across Africa.
• Highlights the increased vulnerability of African countries to these specific compound hazards, providing critical information for climate adaptation strategies aligned with the Paris Agreement.
• Utilizes high-resolution regional climate model simulations from CORDEX-CORE to provide detailed regional projections for Africa.

Funding

Not provided in the abstract.

Citation

@article{FotsoNguemo2025Severity,
  author = {Fotso‐Nguemo, Thierry C. and Diédhiou, Arona and Fotso‐Kamga, Gabriel and Diba, Ibrahima and Camara, Moctar and Tanessong, Roméo S. and Vondou, Derbetini A.},
  title = {Severity of Compound Precipitation and Temperature Extreme Events Over Africa at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming Levels},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70215},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70215}
}