Ebaju et al. (2025) Spatiotemporal Changes of Drought Conditions Over the Hindu‐Kush Himalayan Region During the Recent Century: Insights for Climate Adaptation

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-04
• Authors: Gerverse Kamukama Ebaju, Fangmin Zhang, Abraham Okrah, Thet Mar Soe, Kyaw Than Oo
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70217

Research Groups

Information not available from the abstract.

Short Summary

This study reveals contrasting drought patterns across the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region from 1901 to 2022, showing significant drought reduction in the western HKH and intensifying aridity in the eastern parts. It attributes these divergent trends to distinct climatic drivers, including precipitation, temperature, and teleconnections like the Arctic Oscillation and ENSO, highlighting the need for spatially targeted adaptation strategies.

Objective

• To reveal and understand the contrasting drought patterns and their underlying climatic drivers across the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region under climate change.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region, encompassing Afghanistan, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, India, with specific focus on western HKH, eastern regions, and the Indus Basin.
• Temporal Scale: 1901–2022

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Self‐Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), spatiotemporal analyses, hybrid modelling of threshold‐driven drivers.
• Data sources: Data for scPDSI calculation (precipitation and temperature).

Main Results

• A regional dichotomy in drought patterns was observed: significant drought reduction in Afghanistan, China, and Pakistan (scPDSI slope ≤ +0.016/year, p < 0.05) versus intensifying aridity in Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, and Nepal (slopes ≥ −0.015/year, p < 0.05). India remained stable (slope = −0.002/year, p > 0.05).
• Precipitation dominates drought recovery in the western HKH (e.g., Pakistan and Afghanistan: r = 0.77).
• Arctic Oscillation (AO) teleconnections amplify drought resilience in China (β = 0.43, p < 0.05).
• Eastern regions face temperature‐mediated drought intensification (Bangladesh: r = −0.33) and divergent ENSO impacts (Myanmar: r = −0.32).
• Spatial clustering (Moran's I = 0.753, p < 0.001) confirms that observed drought trends are non‐random and climatically driven.
• Mechanistic contrasts emerged: western HKH recovery links to precipitation and snowmelt, while eastern regimes integrate AO and Australian Summer Monsoon synergies.
• Drought relief areas doubled from 1.15 million square kilometers to 2.34 million square kilometers between 1901 and 2022, accelerating post-1960, contrasting with lowland drought expansion (e.g., Indus Basin).

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, long-term (1901–2022) spatiotemporal analysis of contrasting drought patterns across the entire HKH region.
• Identifies distinct climatic drivers and teleconnections (precipitation, temperature, AO, ENSO, Australian Summer Monsoon) responsible for regional drought dichotomies.
• Bridges hydroclimatic trends with hybrid modelling of threshold‐driven drivers, advancing the understanding of complex drought mechanisms.
• Offers critical insights for developing spatially targeted adaptation strategies, such as water‐efficient agriculture in precipitation‐sensitive lowlands and climate‐resilient storage in high-elevation zones.
• Advances transboundary governance frameworks to mitigate water insecurity in the HKH region.

Funding

Information not available from the abstract.

Citation

@article{Ebaju2025Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Ebaju, Gerverse Kamukama and Zhang, Fangmin and Okrah, Abraham and Soe, Thet Mar and Oo, Kyaw Than},
  title = {Spatiotemporal Changes of Drought Conditions Over the Hindu‐Kush Himalayan Region During the Recent Century: Insights for Climate Adaptation},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70217},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70217}
}