Miao et al. (2025) The Synergistic Effects of the SRP and EAP on Summer Precipitation in the Tarim Basin of Northwest China: A Case Study in August 2016

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Identification

• Journal: International Journal of Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-18
• Authors: Yinuo Miao, Yong Zhao, Lixia Meng, Yuanan Jiang
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.70232

Research Groups

This study investigated the synergetic effects of the Silk Road Pattern (SRP) and East Asian–Pacific (EAP) teleconnections on August precipitation in the Tarim Basin, Northwest China, particularly focusing on the record precipitation in August 2016. It found that a synergetic SRP-EAP index significantly correlates with August precipitation, explaining extreme events through specific atmospheric circulation changes that enhance water vapour transport.

Objective

• To investigate the synergetic effects of the Silk Road Pattern (SRP) and East Asian–Pacific (EAP) teleconnection on August precipitation in the Tarim Basin, especially in 2016.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Tarim Basin, Northwest China.
• Temporal Scale: Monthly data from 1961 to 2022 (62 years), focusing on August precipitation. Daily analysis for SRP and EAP indices during August 2016.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Not applicable (observational and reanalysis study).
• Data sources:
  • Monthly rainfall data: 28 meteorological stations in the Tarim Basin, extracted by the China Meteorological Data Network.
  • Atmospheric circulation data: JRA-55 reanalysis data released by the Japan Meteorological Agency.

Main Results

• The Tarim Basin experienced its maximum August precipitation in 2016 over the past 60 years, attributed to an increase in both precipitation days and precipitation intensity.
• Both the SRP and EAP teleconnections can independently affect August precipitation in the Tarim Basin.
• A synergetic SRP-EAP index shows a stronger relationship with precipitation, exhibiting a correlation coefficient of 0.49 at the 95% confidence level.
• A positive SRP-EAP index is associated with:
  • Southward movement of the subtropical westerly jet over Central Asia.
  • Prevailing southerly winds over the Tarim Basin.
  • Strengthened water vapour transport from the Arabian Sea and East Asian monsoon region.
  • These conditions are favourable for increased August precipitation in the Tarim Basin.
• During August 2016, the precipitation in the Tarim Basin showed three distinct processes corresponding to positive phases of the daily SRP index and negative phases of the daily EAP index, indicating the crucial role of synergetic SRP and EAP variations in modulating extreme precipitation.

Contributions

• First study to specifically investigate the synergetic effects of the Silk Road Pattern (SRP) and East Asian–Pacific (EAP) teleconnections on August precipitation in the Tarim Basin.
• Introduces a novel synergetic SRP-EAP index that demonstrates an improved correlation with August precipitation compared to individual teleconnections.
• Provides a detailed atmospheric circulation mechanism explaining how the synergetic variations of SRP and EAP contribute to extreme precipitation events, such as the record precipitation in August 2016.

Funding

Citation

@article{Miao2025Synergistic,
  author = {Miao, Yinuo and Zhao, Yong and Meng, Lixia and Jiang, Yuanan},
  title = {The Synergistic Effects of the <scp>SRP</scp> and <scp>EAP</scp> on Summer Precipitation in the Tarim Basin of Northwest China: A Case Study in August 2016},
  journal = {International Journal of Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/joc.70232},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70232}
}