Sun et al. (2025) Spatiotemporal Evolution of Agricultural Land Systems in the North China Plain Over Two Decades (2002–2022)

⚠️ Warning: This summary was generated from the abstract only, as the full text was not available.

Identification

• Journal: Land Degradation and Development
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-24
• Authors: Maoyuan Sun, Dengpan Xiao, Yang Lu, Huizi Bai, Peipei Pan, Man Zhang, Xiaomeng Yin, Haonan Tan, Chen Wang
• DOI: 10.1002/ldr.70316

Research Groups

Not specified in the abstract.

Short Summary

This study analyzed agricultural land system transformations in the North China Plain (2002–2022) using fused satellite data, revealing significant shifts in crop distribution driven by environmental constraints, economic incentives, and policy interventions, with implications for water resource management.

Objective

• To analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of agricultural land systems in the North China Plain between 2002 and 2022, integrating environmental constraints, economic incentives, and policy interventions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: North China Plain, with mapping resolutions of 250 meters (MODIS) and 30 meters (Landsat).
• Temporal Scale: 20 years (2002–2022), with specific analyses for the years 2002, 2012, 2017, and 2022.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Random forest for fusing MODIS and Landsat data to generate high-accuracy crop distribution maps.
• Data sources: MODIS satellite data (250 m resolution) and Landsat satellite data (30 m resolution).

Main Results

• The proportion of winter wheat–summer maize (WW-SM) increased from 34.4% to 37.8%, but its absolute area declined by 18.7% (from 46,233 km² to 37,603 km²), shifting from water-stressed Central Hebei to favorable regions in Northern Henan and Northwestern Shandong.
• Single maize cultivation expanded by 10.8% (from 12,644 km² to 14,011 km²), concentrating in groundwater-depleted zones like Cangzhou, aligning with drought adaptation strategies.
• Cotton cultivation plummeted from 14.1% to 3.3% due to labor intensity and low profitability.
• Fruit/forest areas surged by 164%, driven by policies and market demands.
• Vegetable cultivation fragmented near urban areas.
• Transition analysis revealed that 18% of WW-SM areas converted to fruit/forest and vegetables during 2012–2017, coinciding with China's 2014 Groundwater Overdraft Control Regulation.
• Adaptive strategies have mitigated water stress, but persistent spatial mismatches in water allocation remain.

Contributions

• Developed an integrated framework demonstrating robust capacity for agricultural landscape monitoring.
• Generated high-accuracy crop distribution maps for the North China Plain by fusing MODIS and Landsat data via random forest, enhancing resolution and overcoming cloud limitations.
• Provided actionable insights for the water–energy–food nexus by analyzing the drivers of agricultural land system transformation.
• Quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of key agricultural systems and their responses to environmental, economic, and policy factors.

Funding

Not specified in the abstract.

Citation

@article{Sun2025Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Sun, Maoyuan and Xiao, Dengpan and Lu, Yang and Bai, Huizi and Pan, Peipei and Zhang, Man and Yin, Xiaomeng and Tan, Haonan and Wang, Chen},
  title = {Spatiotemporal Evolution of Agricultural Land Systems in the North China Plain Over Two Decades (2002–2022)},
  journal = {Land Degradation and Development},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1002/ldr.70316},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.70316}
}