Khan (2025) New insights into 21st-century drought characteristics under climate change from CMIP6 multimodel ensemble analysis

Identification

• Journal: Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-15
• Authors: Firdos Khan
• DOI: 10.1007/s00477-025-03096-9

Research Groups

• School of Natural Sciences (SNS), National University of Sciences and Technology (NUST), Islamabad, Pakistan

Short Summary

This study projects 21st-century drought characteristics (frequency, duration, severity, intensity, and peak) across different categories in Pakistan using CMIP6 multimodel ensemble data, revealing varied regional shifts in drought dynamics under climate change.

Objective

• To investigate the dynamics of 21st-century drought characteristics (frequency, duration, severity, intensity, and peak) across different drought categories (moderate, severe, extreme, exceptional) in Pakistan under changing climate conditions.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Pakistan, with regional analysis focusing on southern, central, and northern areas.
• Temporal Scale: Reference period: 1985–2014. Projection period: 21st century (future climate change scenarios under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSPs).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs) ensemble, K-fold cross-validation for optimal GCM weighting, Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI).
• Data sources: Observed climate data, CMIP6 modeled climate data (ensemble), Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).

Main Results

• Projections indicate varied regional shifts in drought characteristics across Pakistan.
• Southern areas may experience a decline in severe drought instances but an upward trend in exceptional drought occurrences, with overall diminished drought duration (with exceptions).
• Central regions are projected to face prolonged drought spells, particularly of exceptional magnitude, and increased drought severity across all categories.
• Modest increases in drought intensity (maximum by 2.77%) are anticipated, especially for moderate droughts, except in northern parts under both SSPs.
• No significant change or decline in exceptional drought intensity is projected under both SSPs.
• Peak drought intensification (maximum by 2.98%) may pose challenges across large parts of the country.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed analysis and projection of drought characteristics across different drought categories (moderate, severe, extreme, exceptional) for the 21st century in Pakistan, addressing a gap in existing literature.
• Offers valuable insights for policymakers in water resource management, agricultural strategies, and ecosystem resilience planning amidst evolving climatic dynamics.

Funding

• Not explicitly stated in the provided text.

Citation

@article{Khan2025New,
  author = {Khan, Firdos},
  title = {New insights into 21st-century drought characteristics under climate change from CMIP6 multimodel ensemble analysis},
  journal = {Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s00477-025-03096-9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-025-03096-9}
}