Xue et al. (2025) Unraveling the seasonal variability of meteorological droughts: multiscale insights into the coupling with atmospheric circulation factors

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-01
• Authors: Jianwen Xue, Qiang Zhao, Guoqing Sang, Qingguo Li, Qi Wang, Qingtao Song, Xiumei Li
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-025-05799-z

Research Groups

School of Water Conservancy and Environment, University of Jinan, Jinan, China

Short Summary

This study investigated the seasonal characteristics and atmospheric circulation factor (ACF) coupling of meteorological droughts in the North China Plain (NCP) from 1961-2019, revealing distinct seasonal drought patterns and specific multi-factor combinations driving them.

Objective

• To investigate the seasonal differences in meteorological droughts in the North China Plain (NCP).
• To explore the coupled impacts of atmospheric circulation factors (ACFs) on seasonal drought patterns in the NCP.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: North China Plain (NCP), covering 56 meteorological stations.
• Temporal Scale: 1961 to 2019 (59 years), analyzed on a seasonal basis (spring, summer, autumn, winter).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) for drought characterization.
  • Penman (PM) equation for potential evapotranspiration (PE) calculation.
  • Run theory for drought event identification and classification.
  • Wavelet Coherence (WTC) for bivariate analysis of ACFs and SPEI.
  • Multivariate Wavelet Coherence (MWC) for exploring coupled effects of multiple ACFs on seasonal droughts.
• Data sources:
  • Daily Value Dataset of Surface Climate Data in China (V3.0) from the National Meteorological Information Centre of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) (1961-2019): precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, relative humidity, atmospheric pressure, sunshine hours.
  • Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data from Geospatial Data Cloud (30 m x 30 m resolution).
  • Monthly Atmospheric Circulation Factor (ACF) data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Niño (Niño3.4), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), West Pacific Index (WP), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Sunspot Count (Sunspot).

Main Results

• Droughts in the NCP exhibit pronounced seasonal variability, with most events occurring in spring and summer, and terminating in summer. Spring droughts are particularly severe.
• The three most severe droughts (events #45, #41, #40) extended into autumn and winter due to abnormal summer precipitation.
• Seasonal drought spatial patterns vary: spring drought risk is highest in the northeast, affecting the central region; summer drought is more severe in the northwest; autumn drought risk is higher in the east, with pronounced severity in Henan; winter droughts are most substantial in the southern region (Henan and southern Shandong).
• Linear regression analysis shows non-significant trends in seasonal drought intensification across all seasons.
• Wavelet coherence analyses reveal distinct dominant ACFs for each season:
  • Spring: West Pacific Index (WP) shows a significant positive correlation with SPEI (2-8 year resonance, 1975-2005). The WP-PDO-IOD combination yields the highest multivariate coherence, with significant resonance periods between 1982 and 2008.
  • Summer: Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) shows a significant negative correlation with SPEI (4-6 year resonance, 1985-1998). The PDO-WP-Niño3.4 combination demonstrates the strongest coupling effects on summer droughts from 1978 to 2000.
  • Autumn: Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) exhibits a positive 2-3 year resonance with SPEI (1970-1990). The SOI-IOD combination provides sufficient explanatory power for autumn droughts, with significant resonance periods spanning 1970-1995.
  • Winter: Niño3.4 is positively correlated with SPEI, showing 2-3 year (1965-1970) and 8-16 year (1970-1998) resonances. The Niño3.4-SOI-Sunspot combination effectively explains winter droughts before 2000.

Contributions

• Provides a systematic evaluation of the coupled relationships among various atmospheric circulation factors (ACFs) in the formation of seasonal droughts, addressing a gap in existing literature that often focuses on annual scales.
• Offers critical, multiscale insights into the mechanisms driving seasonal droughts in the North China Plain (NCP).
• Establishes a valuable foundation for enhancing agricultural productivity and water resource management strategies in the NCP by identifying key ACF combinations influencing seasonal drought.

Funding

• Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation (No. ZR2024ME171, ZR2024QD207)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41471160, 42377077)

Citation

@article{Xue2025Unraveling,
  author = {Xue, Jianwen and Zhao, Qiang and Sang, Guoqing and Li, Qingguo and Wang, Qi and Song, Qingtao and Li, Xiumei},
  title = {Unraveling the seasonal variability of meteorological droughts: multiscale insights into the coupling with atmospheric circulation factors},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-025-05799-z},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05799-z}
}