Deng et al. (2025) Modeling the propagation time from meteorological to root-zone soil moisture drought: a case study in Jiangxi Province, China

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-17
• Authors: Lele Deng, Han Wang, Xinbo Liu, Bowen Zhu
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-025-05857-6

Research Groups

• Hubei Key Laboratory of Intelligent Yangtze and Hydroelectric Science, China Yangtze Power Co., Ltd, Yichang, China
• Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan, China
• College of Water Resource Science and Engineering, Taiyuan University of Technology, Taiyuan, China

Short Summary

This study utilized the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model to quantify the propagation time from meteorological to root-zone soil moisture drought in Jiangxi Province, China. It demonstrated that climate change, particularly higher temperatures, has increased drought frequency and altered propagation times in recent decades, providing insights for water resource management in humid agricultural regions.

Objective

• To investigate the effects of climate change on drought patterns and the propagation time from meteorological drought to root-zone soil moisture deficits in Jiangxi Province, China.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Jiangxi Province, China, a humid agricultural region in southern China.
• Temporal Scale: Two distinct periods: 1970–1990 and 2000–2020.

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model.
• Data sources: Observational data for model validation (available upon request), likely supplemented by meteorological inputs (precipitation, temperature) for the hydrological model.

Main Results

• Soil moisture deficits occurred more frequently from 2000 to 2020 compared to 1970–1990, primarily in response to higher temperatures.
• The drought-affected area in Jiangxi Province increased by 5.42% from the 1970s to the 2000s.
• The average propagation time from meteorological drought to root-zone soil moisture deficits was 5 days during 1970–1990, increasing to 6 days during 2000–2020.
• In this humid watershed, temperature and soil moisture had a stronger impact on drought propagation time than precipitation.
• Global warming-induced temperature changes likely triggered flash droughts during the 2000–2020 period.

Contributions

• Provides a quantitative evaluation of the impact of climate change on interconnected water budgets and drought dynamics using a hydrological model.
• Offers valuable insights for water resource management and the prediction of extreme hydrological events, particularly for crops in humid regions.
• Addresses a gap in the analysis of drought propagation time, specifically concerning root-zone soil moisture for agricultural purposes.

Funding

• National Natural Science Foundation of China (42301033)
• Research program of China Yangtze River Power Co., Ltd (2425020015)

Citation

@article{Deng2025Modeling,
  author = {Deng, Lele and Wang, Han and Liu, Xinbo and Zhu, Bowen},
  title = {Modeling the propagation time from meteorological to root-zone soil moisture drought: a case study in Jiangxi Province, China},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-025-05857-6},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05857-6}
}