Wang et al. (2025) Spatiotemporal evolution and atmospheric circulation response of DWAA events in the Yellow River Basin, China, under climate warming

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: Yixing Wang, Ying Wang, Feng Xinyuan
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-025-05937-7

Research Groups

• Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province, Key Open Laboratory of Arid Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Lanzhou, Gansu, China
• Zhangye National Climate Observatory, Zhangye, Gansu, China

Short Summary

This study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of Dry–Wet Abrupt Alternation (DWAA) events in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) from 1960 to 2023 and their relationship with atmospheric circulation under climate warming, revealing a northward shift and eastward expansion of high-frequency zones and increased influence of atmospheric factors after a 1997 temperature shift.

Objective

• To clarify the impact of climate warming on Dry–Wet Abrupt Alternation (DWAA) events in the Yellow River Basin (YRB) and examine their relationship with atmospheric circulation.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yellow River Basin (YRB), China (approximately 795,000 km²).
• Temporal Scale: 1960 to 2023 (64 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Daily Scale Dry–Wet Abrupt Alternation Index (DWAAI), Mann–Kendall (M-K) mutation test, hotspot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi statistic), Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), linear regression, partial correlation analysis.
• Data sources: Daily precipitation and temperature data from 240 national meteorological stations (China Meteorological Data Service Center - CMDC), historical drought and flood hazard documentation (Yearbook of Meteorological Disasters in China), atmospheric circulation index data (National Climate Center - NCC, China Meteorological Administration).

Main Results

• Mild and moderate DWAA events exhibit a "more in the east, less in the west" spatial distribution, with peak occurrence in June–July. Higher-grade events tend to occur earlier in the year.
• Following a temperature shift in 1997, high-frequency zones of all DWAA event grades shifted northward and expanded eastward.
• The annual average coverage area of mild and moderate events increased significantly in the lower reaches (by 4.48% and 4.07%, respectively) in the post-warming period, while severe events experienced a slight contraction.
• After the temperature shift, DWAA events in the upper and middle reaches occurred earlier, and the temporal concentration of severe events became more pronounced.
• Event frequency trends reversed from decreasing (pre-warming) to increasing (post-warming) for most event types, with mild events showing the strongest sensitivity.
• The influence of atmospheric circulation factors on DWAA events is primarily associated with the Dry Period in June and the Wet Period in July, with teleconnection factors contributing more strongly to the Dry Period and exhibiting a greater lag effect.
• After climate warming, the influence of most atmospheric circulation factors on DWAA events in the YRB increased, and some indices shifted from predominantly affecting the Dry Period to predominantly affecting the Wet Period.

Contributions

• Provides a systematic investigation of the spatiotemporal evolution and atmospheric circulation response of DWAA events in the Yellow River Basin (YRB), addressing a significant research gap.
• Utilizes and adaptively revises the Daily Scale Dry–Wet Abrupt Alternation Index (DWAAI) based on daily precipitation data, improving the accuracy of event identification for abrupt transitions.
• Quantifies the evolutionary features of DWAA events under climate warming, including shifts in high-frequency zones, changes in spatial coverage, and temporal concentration.
• Analyzes the specific roles of direct and teleconnection atmospheric circulation factors in driving DWAA events and how these influences change under warming.
• Offers scientific support for developing proactive early warning systems and effective management strategies for compound disasters in the YRB.

Funding

• NSFC (Key project of National Natural Science Foundation of China) (Grant number 42230611)
• Gansu Province Joint Research Fund (Grant number 25JRRA1113)
• The Third Cohort of the Longyuan Young Elites Program
• Innovation and Development Project of the China Meteorological Administration (Grant Number CXFZ2024J037)
• Gansu Provincial Key Research and Development Project for Ecological Civilization Construction (Grant Number 25YFFA077)
• Scientific Research Project of Lanzhou Institute of Arid Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration (KYS2022SSKY04)

Citation

@article{Wang2025Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Wang, Yixing and Wang, Ying and Xinyuan, Feng},
  title = {Spatiotemporal evolution and atmospheric circulation response of DWAA events in the Yellow River Basin, China, under climate warming},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-025-05937-7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05937-7}
}