Disasa et al. (2025) Modelling the impact of climate and land cover changes on hydrological cycle components: a case of the middle Huai river basin

Identification

• Journal: Theoretical and Applied Climatology
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-29
• Authors: Kinde Negessa Disasa, Haofang Yan, Guoqing Wang, Jianyun Zhang, Chuan Zhang, Biyu Wang, Rongxuan Bao
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-025-05964-4

Research Groups

• Research Centre of Fluid Machinery Engineering and Technology, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China
• State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing, China
• School of Agricultural Equipment Engineering, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang, China

Short Summary

This study assessed the impacts of climate and land cover changes on hydrological cycle components in the Middle Huai River Basin (MHRB) for a reference period (1991–2020) and two future periods (2041–2060, 2071–2090) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. It found that climate change is the dominant factor, leading to an intensification of hydrological cycle processes with increased precipitation and temperature, but also increased spatiotemporal variability.

Objective

• To quantify the contribution of climate change to variations in hydrological cycle components during the reference period (1991–2020).
• To project the response of these hydrological components to the individual and combined effects of changes in air temperature and precipitation under SSP scenarios (SSP 126, SSP 245, and SSP 585) across two future periods: mid-term (2041–2060) and long-term (2071–2090).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Middle Huai River Basin (MHRB), China, with a drainage area of 270,000 km².
• Temporal Scale:
  • Reference period: 1991–2020
  • Mid-term future: 2041–2060
  • Long-term future: 2071–2090

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model (physically based, semi-distributed hydrological model).
  • Long Ashton Research Station weather generator (LARS-WG 8.0) (statistical downscaling model).
  • SWAT-CUP model based on the SUFI-2 algorithm (for calibration and validation).
• Data sources:
  • Daily meteorological data (precipitation, wind speed, relative humidity, solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperatures) from 12 stations (1991–2020) from the Data Center of the China Meteorological Administration.
  • Digital Elevation Model (DEM) from GSCloud (90 m × 90 m spatial resolution).
  • Annual land use data (2000–2020) from the Resources and Environmental Science Data Center.
  • Soil data from the Harmonized World Soil Database (1 km × 1 km spatial resolution).
  • Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP6 (6 GCMs incorporated into LARS-WG 8.0).
  • Observed runoff discharges from Bengbu, Lutaizi, and Wangjiaba hydrological stations for model calibration and validation.

Main Results

• During the reference period (1991–2020), climate change was the dominant factor impacting hydrological cycle components in the MHRB compared to land use and land cover (LULC) change. Climate change negatively impacted surface runoff (RF) by 59.48 mm and total water yield (TWY) by 105.73 mm, while positively influencing actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and potential evapotranspiration (ETp) by 4.70 mm and 16.05 mm, respectively.
• Future projections indicated a consistent increase in mean annual maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures across all SSP scenarios and future periods. Mean annual Tmax and Tmin are projected to increase by 2.21 °C and 1.77 °C by 2050, and by 3.43 °C and 2.87 °C by 2080, respectively.
• Mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by 12.93% by 2050 and 19.50% by 2080, with the highest increases under SSP 585.
• Under the combined influence of projected changes in precipitation and temperature, mean annual RF, TWY, ETa, and ETp are expected to increase. By 2080, RF is projected to increase by 42.92%, TWY by 36.93%, ETa by 9.60%, and ETp by 11.93%, indicating an intensification of the hydrological cycle.
• Individual effects revealed that precipitation (P) had a greater positive contribution to RF and TWY than air temperature (T). T* exhibited smaller increases in RF (3.46%), TWY (1.88%), and ETa (1.60%) compared to the combined scenario (B*). ETp was significantly more negatively affected by precipitation than by temperature.
• Spatiotemporal variability is expected to increase, with RF projected to decrease in September and ETa in July, while TWY and ETp are expected to increase in all months. The highest seasonal increase in mean RF was projected in spring (46.76%).

Contributions

• Quantified the distinct contributions of climate change and LULC changes to hydrological cycle components during a comprehensive reference period.
• Provided future projections of hydrological responses to both combined and individual effects of precipitation and air temperature changes under the latest CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios.
• Utilized a robust methodology combining the LARS-WG 8.0 statistical downscaling model with the physically-based SWAT hydrological model, calibrated and validated for the specific study area.
• Offered insights into the dominant drivers of hydrological changes and their spatiotemporal variability, which is crucial for developing targeted adaptation strategies and early warning systems for water resource management in vulnerable river basins.

Funding

• Natural Science Foundation of China (U2243228, 52121006, 51509107)
• Major Science and Technology Innovation Pilot Project for Water Resources Protection and Integrated-Saving Utilization in the Yellow River Basin of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region (Grant No. 2023JBGS0007)
• Water Resources Science and Technology Program of Hunan Province (Grant No. XSKJ2023059-06)

Citation

@article{Disasa2025Modelling,
  author = {Disasa, Kinde Negessa and Yan, Haofang and Wang, Guoqing and Zhang, Jianyun and Zhang, Chuan and Wang, Biyu and Bao, Rongxuan},
  title = {Modelling the impact of climate and land cover changes on hydrological cycle components: a case of the middle Huai river basin},
  journal = {Theoretical and Applied Climatology},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s00704-025-05964-4},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-025-05964-4}
}