Günaçtı et al. (2025) Assessment of a Survivability Index for Drought Management in River Basins

Identification

• Journal: Water Resources Management
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-03
• Authors: Mert Can Günaçtı, Cem P. Cetinkaya
• DOI: 10.1007/s11269-025-04321-4

Research Groups

• Faculty of Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, Dokuz Eylul University, Izmir, Turkey

Short Summary

This paper introduces a novel Survivability from Droughts Index (SDI) to assess drought management capacity in river basins, integrating WEF Nexus and sustainability pillars. The index was applied to the Gediz River Basin, Türkiye, demonstrating its ability to validate historical drought impacts and guide actions for improved drought survivability.

Objective

• To develop and assess a novel Survivability from Droughts Index (SDI) that evaluates quantitative and qualitative indicators representing the Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus system and the economic, social, institutional, and environmental pillars of sustainability for drought management in river basins.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Gediz River Basin (GBR), Türkiye
• Temporal Scale: Specific years including 1982 (wet), 1991–1992 (drier), and 2023 (recent).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Survivability from Droughts Index (SDI), composed of four sub-indices: perception, vulnerability, adaptability, and recoverability.
• Data sources: Various quantitative and qualitative data, including stakeholder engagement, with all data presented in the Supplementary Information document.

Main Results

• The calculated SDI for the Gediz River Basin was 0.38 in a relatively wet year (1982).
• The SDI dropped to 0.31 during a drier period (1991–1992), reflecting decreased survivability.
• The SDI increased to 0.48 in a recent year (2023), indicating improved capacity.
• The results successfully validate historical drought events and demonstrate that survivability can be enhanced through targeted actions to improve the SDI's sub-indices.
• The SDI framework provides valuable insights for decision-makers to detect and prioritize interventions such as new investments and insurance policies in drought-vulnerable areas.

Contributions

• Introduction of a novel, comprehensive Survivability from Droughts Index (SDI) that integrates the WEF Nexus and sustainability pillars (economic, social, institutional, environmental).
• Provides a quantitative and qualitative framework for assessing drought management capacity at the river basin scale, specifically focusing on the agricultural sector's economic survivability.
• Offers a practical tool for decision-makers to identify vulnerabilities, prioritize actions, and improve resilience to droughts.

Funding

• PRIMA Foundation funded bilateral project of Xjenza Malta and TUBITAK: “UNIfied framework to cope with droughts under MEDiterranean climate change conditions” (UNIMED, Project No:122N412).
• PRIMA Foundation funded sister project: “Safeguarding the Livelihood of Rural Communities and The Environment in the Mediterranean Through Nature-Based Solutions” (Mara-Mediterra, Grant Agreement No: 2121).

Citation

@article{Günaçtı2025Assessment,
  author = {Günaçtı, Mert Can and Cetinkaya, Cem P.},
  title = {Assessment of a Survivability Index for Drought Management in River Basins},
  journal = {Water Resources Management},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s11269-025-04321-4},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-025-04321-4}
}