Miś (2025) Thermal and precipitation conditions during the thermal growing season in Central and Northern Europe

Identification

• Journal: Acta Geophysica
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-05
• Authors: Filip Miś
• DOI: 10.1007/s11600-025-01730-2

Research Groups

• Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Doctoral School of Natural Sciences, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań, Poznań, Poland

Short Summary

This study comprehensively analyzed thermal and precipitation conditions during the thermal growing season (TGS) in Central and Northern Europe from 1950 to 2022, revealing a consistent and statistically significant warming and lengthening of the TGS, while precipitation trends showed high spatial and interannual variability with no clear overall long-term direction.

Objective

• To conduct a comprehensive analysis of changes in thermal and precipitation conditions during the thermal growing season in Central and Northern Europe over the period 1950–2022, with particular emphasis on season length, cumulative temperatures, atmospheric precipitation, the number of days with precipitation, and values of the hydrothermal coefficient (HTC).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Central and Northern Europe, specifically the area between 5° and 40° E longitude and 47.5° and 70° N latitude, with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°.
• Temporal Scale: 1950–2022 (73 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Sen’s nonparametric linear regression method for trend estimation.
  • Mann–Kendall test (p < 0.05) for statistical significance of trends.
  • Bootstrap procedure based on the Theil–Sen estimator for statistical uncertainty.
  • Hydrothermal coefficient of Selyaninov (HTC) calculated as: $HTC=\frac{\sum {P}{>10^{\circ }C}}{0.1\cdot \sum {T}{>10^{\circ }C}}$
• Data sources:
  • Mean daily air temperature ($T{mean}$) and mean daily total atmospheric precipitation ($P{sum}$) values obtained from the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECA&D) reanalysis.

Main Results

• The mean thermal growing season (TGS) length was 189 days, ranging from 76 days in northern Scandinavia to 293 days in southwestern Germany and the southern Netherlands, with a statistically significant increase observed over the study period.
• The TGS onset shifted earlier (mean April 24) and termination shifted later (mean October 30).
• The mean air temperature during the TGS was 12.1 °C, increasing at a rate of 0.13 °C per decade.
• The sum of temperatures (cumulative air temperature) rose by an average of 53 °C per decade, with the highest rates in southern Central Europe.
• Mean precipitation totals during the TGS were 390 mm, showing a weak decreasing trend of -1.1 mm per decade, but with pronounced spatial and seasonal variability.
• The mean number of days with precipitation was 73.
• The mean hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) was 1.39, indicating optimal conditions for plant development, with values ranging from 0.5 to over 3.0. HTC trends were regionally differentiated but statistically insignificant for the study area as a whole.
• A systematic warming of the TGS was observed across the entire study area, while precipitation exhibited strongly varied trends and spatial variability, significantly altering the region’s thermal and moisture conditions.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, long-term analysis combining both thermal and precipitation conditions across the entire Central and Northern European region, addressing a gap in existing literature.
• Extends previous methodologies for determining the thermal growing season to a broader spatial scale and complements it with additional agroclimatic indices like the Hydrothermal Coefficient of Selyaninov (HTC).
• Offers clear evidence of climate-induced modifications to the growing season, highlighting implications for ecosystem functioning and agricultural production, and underscoring the importance of adaptive management strategies.

Funding

• No funding was received for conducting this study.

Citation

@article{Miś2025Thermal,
  author = {Miś, Filip},
  title = {Thermal and precipitation conditions during the thermal growing season in Central and Northern Europe},
  journal = {Acta Geophysica},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s11600-025-01730-2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-025-01730-2}
}