Huang et al. (2025) Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought in Yili River Basin, Northwest China in 1980–2020

Identification

• Journal: Chinese Geographical Science
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-15
• Authors: Mengzhen Huang, Ruijie Lu, Peiru Li, Yutong Han
• DOI: 10.1007/s11769-025-1587-1

Research Groups

• Engineering Center of Desertification and Blown-Sand Control of Ministry of Education, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
• State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Disaster Risk Reduction, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

Short Summary

This study analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of drought in the Yili River Basin, Northwest China, from 1980 to 2020, revealing a general intensification of droughts, particularly in spring and summer, driven by meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

Objective

• To investigate the spatiotemporal variations, trends, periodicity, and persistence of drought in the Yili River Basin.
• To explore the underlying drivers of drought associated with meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Yili River Basin, Northwest China.
• Temporal Scale: 1980–2020 (41 years).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Run-Length theory, statistical analyses (e.g., Sen’s slope, Mann-Kendall test), time-series analyses (e.g., wavelet transform for periodicity).
• Data sources: Monthly Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) data, meteorological factors (temperature, precipitation), large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, East Central Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature).

Main Results

• Droughts in the Yili River Basin are more severe in spring and summer.
• The central and southwestern regions exhibit greater drought severity, with shorter durations and stronger intensity.
• Drought conditions generally worsened (Sen’s slope = −0.146 per decade) from 1980 to 2020, with notable intensification since 2005, particularly in the northwestern region.
• Spring droughts (Sen’s slope = −0.213 per decade) and summer droughts (Sen’s slope = −0.169 per decade) intensified at most stations, while autumn and winter droughts eased.
• The Yili River Basin exhibits two primary drought periods of 9 years and 21 years. Seasonal primary periods are 10 years for spring, 17 years for summer, and 20 years for both autumn and winter.
• Droughts are impacted by rising temperatures, uneven precipitation, and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns.
• The SPEI shows a co-phase relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation and an antiphase relationship with the East Central Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive and quantitative analysis of spatiotemporal drought characteristics (variations, trends, periodicity, persistence) and their driving mechanisms for the Yili River Basin, a critical ecological security area.
• Identifies specific seasonal and regional drought intensification trends, offering crucial insights for targeted drought monitoring and mitigation strategies in the region.
• Establishes the influence of both local meteorological factors and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on drought variability in the basin, enhancing understanding of regional climate dynamics.

Funding

• Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program (No. 2022xjkk0600)

Citation

@article{Huang2025Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Huang, Mengzhen and Lu, Ruijie and Li, Peiru and Han, Yutong},
  title = {Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Drought in Yili River Basin, Northwest China in 1980–2020},
  journal = {Chinese Geographical Science},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s11769-025-1587-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-025-1587-1}
}