Du et al. (2025) Evapotranspiration and Its Components Partitioning Based on an Improved Hydrological Model: Historical Attributions and Future Projections

Identification

• Journal: Journal of Earth Science
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-01
• Authors: Hong Du, Sidong Zeng, Yongyue Ji, Jun Xia
• DOI: 10.1007/s12583-024-0097-x

Research Groups

• College of Resources and Environment, South-Central Minzu University, Wuhan, China
• Chongqing Institute of Green and Intelligent Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing, China
• Chongqing School, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Chongqing, China
• State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan, China

Short Summary

This study developed an improved hydrological model, integrating water balance and water-carbon coupling, to estimate and attribute historical changes and project future trends of evapotranspiration (ET) and its components (evaporation, E; transpiration, T). It found significant historical increases in ET and E, primarily driven by precipitation, and projected future increases in ET and its components under most Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios.

Objective

• To develop and apply an improved hydrological model, integrating water balance and water-carbon coupling relationships, to estimate, attribute, and project evapotranspiration (ET) and its components (evaporation, E; transpiration, T) under changing environmental conditions for regional water resources management.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Regional
• Temporal Scale: Historical attribution (past years, prior to 2025) and future projections (under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways - SSP scenarios).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: An improved hydrological model integrating water balance and water-carbon close relationships.
• Data sources: Not explicitly stated in the abstract, but implied to include climate data for historical attribution and future projections (SSP scenarios).

Main Results

• The improved hydrological model effectively captured evapotranspiration (ET) and its components (evaporation, E; transpiration, T) in the study region.
• Historically, annual ET increased by approximately 2.40 mm/year and annual E by 1.42 mm/year, with 90% of these increases occurring in spring and summer.
• Transpiration (T) showed a smaller increase, mainly in spring, and a decrease in summer.
• Precipitation was the dominant factor, contributing 74.1% and 90.0% to the increases in annual ET and E, respectively.
• Changes in T were more complex, resulting from positive effects of precipitation, rising temperature, and interactive influences, counteracted by negative effects of solar dimming and elevated carbon dioxide (CO2).
• Future projections indicate that ET and its components will generally increase under most SSP scenarios, with the exception of T decreasing under the very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5).
• Seasonal changes in ET and its components are predominantly in spring and summer (75%), with minor changes in autumn and winter.

Contributions

• Demonstrated the effectiveness of estimating ET and its components through improved hydrological models incorporating water-carbon coupling relationships.
• Revealed the more complex mechanisms governing transpiration changes compared to evapotranspiration and evaporation changes under the interactive effects of climate variability and vegetation dynamics.
• Highlighted the need for decision-makers to address the projected greater increase in undesirable evaporation (E) relative to desirable transpiration (T).

Funding

• Chongqing Natural Science Foundation Innovation-Driven Development Joint Funds (No. CSTB2025NSCQ-LZX0055)
• Youth Innovation Promotion Association, CAS (No. 2021385)
• Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of South-Central Minzu University (No. CZQ24028)
• Hubei Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 2023AFB782)
• Program of China Scholarship Council (No. 202407780001)
• National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51809008)
• Fund for Academic Innovation Teams of South-Central Minzu University (No. XTZ24019)

Citation

@article{Du2025Evapotranspiration,
  author = {Du, Hong and Zeng, Sidong and Ji, Yongyue and Xia, Jun},
  title = {Evapotranspiration and Its Components Partitioning Based on an Improved Hydrological Model: Historical Attributions and Future Projections},
  journal = {Journal of Earth Science},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s12583-024-0097-x},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s12583-024-0097-x}
}