Kumar et al. (2025) Rainfall variability for crop water management under changing climate in Himachal Pradesh

Identification

• Journal: Applied Water Science
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-12
• Authors: Sachin Kumar, Ranbir Singh Rana, M. Shilpa, Banti Kumar, Ali Salem, Bilel Zeroualı, Ahmed Elbeltagi
• DOI: 10.1007/s13201-025-02653-5

Research Groups

• Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, SGT University, Gurugram, India
• Centre for Geo‑Informatics Research and Training, CSKHPKV, Palampur, India
• Department of Physical Sciences and Languages, CSKHPKV, Palampur, India
• School of Agriculture, Department of Agronomy, Lovely Professional University, Phagwara, Jalandhar, India
• Civil Engineering Department, Faculty of Engineering, Minia University, Minia, Egypt
• Structural Diagnostics and Analysis Research Group, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Pécs, Pecs, Hungary
• Laboratory of Architecture, Cities and Environment, Department of Hydraulic, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Architecture, University of Chlef, Hassiba Benbouali, Chlef, Algeria
• Agricultural Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt

Short Summary

This study analyzed spatial and temporal rainfall variability and water balance across three agro-climatic zones of Himachal Pradesh, India, from 1974-2021, revealing decreasing annual and seasonal rainfall trends and shifts in water surplus/deficit patterns that significantly impact crop water management and agricultural productivity.

Objective

• To characterize annual and seasonal rainfall variability and surface water balance (surplus/deficit) under changing climatic scenarios for effective management strategies of water resources in Himachal Pradesh.
• Hypotheses: (i) Climate change has caused significant variability in rainfall patterns across different zones of Himachal Pradesh; (ii) surface water balance (surplus/deficit) has a significant impact on agricultural productivity; and (iii) the frequency of extreme rainfall poses challenges for effective crop water management.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Himachal Pradesh, India, focusing on three distinct agro-climatic zones: Zone-I (low hills, subtropical), Zone-II (mid hills, sub-humid), and Zone-III (high hills, wet temperate). Specific locations include Dhaulakuan (Zone-I), Palampur (Zone-II), and Bajaura (Zone-III).
• Temporal Scale:
  • Zone-I (Dhaulakuan): 1986–2020
  • Zone-II (Palampur): 1974–2021
  • Zone-III (Bajaura): 1986–2021

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Coefficient of Variation (CV) for rainfall variability.
  • Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) to assess rainfall seasonality.
  • Mann–Kendall test for non-parametric trend analysis.
  • Sen’s slope estimator to quantify the magnitude of rainfall trends.
  • Penman–Monteith method for calculating reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) and subsequent water balance (deficit/surplus).
• Data sources: Daily rainfall data collected from Agro-Meteorological Observatories at:
  • CSKHPKV, Palampur (HP) for Zone-II.
  • Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Dhaulakuan for Zone-I.
  • Krishi Vigyan Kendra, Bajaura for Zone-III.

Main Results

• The South–West (SW) monsoon (July–October) contributed significantly to annual rainfall: 84% for Zone-I, 76% for Zone-II, and 47% for Zone-III.
• Mean annual Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) values indicated irregular monthly precipitation distribution (PCI > 20) for Zone-II and Zone-III, while Zone-I showed moderate distribution (PCI = 11–15).
• Sen’s slope estimator revealed significant decreasing annual rainfall trends across all zones: -8.021 mm/year for Zone-I, -6.830 mm/year for Zone-II, and -5.050 mm/year for Zone-III.
• Water balance studies showed a shift in peak surplus water availability from July to August during the SW monsoon in recent decades across all agro-climatic zones.
• During 1986–2020, Zone-I (low-hill regions) experienced water surplus during the monsoon season and deficit during the winter season, whereas Zone-II (mid-hill regions) experienced water deficits during the monsoon season and surplus during the winter season. Zone-III showed annual net water deficits in recent decades.
• Erratic rainfall patterns and shifts in available water balance adversely impact agricultural productivity by shortening the cropping calendar and time duration between crops.

Contributions

• Provides a detailed, long-term (up to 48 years) analysis of spatial and temporal rainfall variability and water balance across diverse agro-climatic zones of Himachal Pradesh, a vulnerable mountainous region.
• Quantifies significant decreasing trends in annual and seasonal rainfall and identifies critical shifts in water surplus/deficit periods, offering crucial insights for climate-resilient agricultural planning.
• Highlights the direct implications of changing rainfall patterns on crop water management, sowing windows, and overall agricultural productivity in rain-fed areas.
• Offers scientific evidence and actionable recommendations for policymakers, farmers, and water resource managers to develop adaptive strategies, such as rainwater harvesting and cultivating less water-intensive crops, to enhance food security and sustainable production in the face of climate change.

Funding

The author(s) received no specific funding for this work.

Citation

@article{Kumar2025Rainfall,
  author = {Kumar, Sachin and Kumar, Arun and Rana, Ranbir Singh and Shilpa, M. and Kumar, Banti and Salem, Ali and Zeroualı, Bilel and Elbeltagi, Ahmed},
  title = {Rainfall variability for crop water management under changing climate in Himachal Pradesh},
  journal = {Applied Water Science},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s13201-025-02653-5},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s13201-025-02653-5}
}