Ayoob et al. (2025) Possible consequences of land cover and land use dynamics on the land surface temperature: A case study of lower Zab River Basin

Identification

• Journal: Modeling Earth Systems and Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-02
• Authors: Nadheer S. Ayoob, Ruqayah Mohammed
• DOI: 10.1007/s40808-025-02688-2

Research Groups

• The University of Babylon, Hilla, Iraq
• The University of Wasit, Kut, Iraq

Short Summary

This research investigates the dynamics of land cover/land use (LCLU) and their influence on Land Surface Temperature (LST) in the Lower Zab River Basin (LZRB), Iraq, from 2002 to 2023. Findings reveal significant increases in urban and agricultural areas, a reduction in water bodies, and a strong correlation where bare lands exhibit the highest LSTs while water bodies show the lowest, emphasizing the critical impact of LCLU changes on regional thermal conditions and water resources.

Objective

• To study the LCLU change (LCLUC) patterns during a two-decade period (2002–2023).
• To examine the implications of LCLUC on LST across the LZRB, detecting spatial and temporal variations during these years.
• To determine and document the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) to assess the precision of LCLU classification and estimate drought severity within the basin.
• To estimate the temporal modifications in the watershed’s water resources.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Lower Zab River Basin (LZRB), a shared watershed in northern Iraq and northwest Iran, with a total area of approximately 19,800 km². The basin extends between longitudes 43°25′ − 46°20′ E and latitudes 35°10′ − 36°55′ N, with altitudes ranging from 120 m to 3599 m above mean sea level.
• Temporal Scale: Five-year intervals over two decades (2002, 2008, 2013, 2018, and 2023).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Maximum Likelihood Classifier (MLC) for LCLU classification.
  • Equations for calculating Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Vegetation Condition Index (VCI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI), and Land Surface Temperature (LST).
  • Software: ENVI 5.3, ERDAS IMAGINE 2014, ArcMap 10.8, SPSS (for paired-sample t-test).
• Data sources:
  • Landsat satellite images: Landsat 5 TM (2002, 2008), Landsat 8 OLI (2013, 2018), and Landsat 9 OLI (2023), obtained from the USGS Earth Explorer.
  • Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 30 m spatial resolution, also from USGS.
  • Google Earth for ground-truth points for accuracy assessment.

Main Results

• LCLU classification achieved high accuracy, with overall accuracies ranging from 91% to 94.7% and Kappa coefficients from 0.89 to 0.94.
• From 2002 to 2023, urban areas increased by 167.49%, and agricultural lands grew by 42.99%, while water bodies decreased by 13.38%. Bare lands remained the dominant class, covering 54.1% to 70.6% of the basin, with a notable increase in 2008 due to severe drought.
• Mean LST in the study area ranged from 40.4 °C (2018) to 44.2 °C (2002). LCLU class significantly influenced LST: light bare lands exhibited the highest mean LST (48.6 °C), followed by dark bare lands (43.7 °C) and urban areas (38.0 °C), while water bodies showed the lowest mean LST (28.1 °C).
• NDVI values ranged from a minimum of 0.12 (2008) to a maximum of 0.24 (2023), generally showing an inverse relationship with LST. VCI values were consistent with NDVI, indicating normal vegetation conditions across the study years (51.8% to 57.7%).
• The NDWI accurately delineated water bodies, aligning closely with classification results, whereas the MNDWI overestimated water areas due to misclassifying snowy lands.
• The Dukan Reservoir, a critical water resource, represented 89.0% of the total water bodies in 2002 but decreased to 82.9% in 2018, indicating a continuous decline in Iraq's share of water resources, partly attributed to upstream dam construction in Iran.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, up-to-date spatiotemporal analysis of LCLU dynamics and their direct impacts on LST in the Lower Zab River Basin, filling a notable gap in the existing literature for this specific, climate-vulnerable region.
• Quantifies the extent of LCLU changes (e.g., 167.5% increase in urban areas, 13.4% decrease in water bodies) and their specific correlations with LST using multiple spectral indices over a two-decade period.
• Highlights the critical issue of declining water resources in the Iraqi portion of the basin, specifically the Dukan Reservoir, linking it to upstream developments and offering crucial insights for water resource management.
• Offers valuable, spatially accurate datasets and insights derived from remote sensing, which can directly inform legislators and decision-makers for improving water resource management and promoting sustainable rural development policies.

Funding

Not Applicable. The public, private, or not-for-profit sectors did not provide unique support for this research.

Citation

@article{Ayoob2025Possible,
  author = {Ayoob, Nadheer S. and Mohammed, Ruqayah},
  title = {Possible consequences of land cover and land use dynamics on the land surface temperature: A case study of lower Zab River Basin},
  journal = {Modeling Earth Systems and Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s40808-025-02688-2},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-025-02688-2}
}