Montaseri et al. (2025) Climate change impacts on the water footprint of horticultural and agronomic crops in the Lake Urmia basin

Identification

• Journal: Modeling Earth Systems and Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-26
• Authors: Majid Montaseri, Negar Rasouli Majd, Babak Amirataee
• DOI: 10.1007/s40808-025-02697-1

Research Groups

Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

Short Summary

This study modeled the impact of climate change on the green and blue water footprints of 21 horticultural and agronomic crops in the Lake Urmia basin, projecting future temperature increases, precipitation shifts, a general increase in blue water footprint, and a decrease in green water footprint for most crops, highlighting the need for adapted cultivation patterns.

Objective

• To examine the impact of climate change on the green and blue water footprints of 21 horticultural and agronomic crops in the Lake Urmia basin during two future testing periods (2011–2030 and 2046–2065).
• To determine an effective guideline for developing the sustainable and optimal agricultural exploitation of the Lake Urmia basin’s water resources.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Lake Urmia basin, Iran (52,700 km²), utilizing data from seven synoptic meteorological stations (Urmia, Tabriz, Takab, Sarab, Saqez, Maragheh, and Mahabad).
• Temporal Scale: Historical reference period (1981–2010); two future testing periods (2011–2030 and 2046–2065).

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • HadCM3 GCM climate model (for climate projection).
  • LARS-WG micro-scale package (for downscaling GCM outputs).
  • FAO Penman-Monteith equation (for reference evapotranspiration, ET₀).
  • CropWat 8.0 software (for calculating evapotranspiration and crop water requirements).
  • Linear relationship between relative yield reduction and relative evapotranspiration deficit (Doorenbos and Kassam, 1979) for yield variation.
• Data sources:
  • Predicted daily time series of meteorological variables (temperature, precipitation, sunshine hours) from the HadCM3 GCM under RCP2.6 (low/optimistic) and RCP8.5 (high/pessimistic) greenhouse gas emission scenarios.
  • Historical daily time series of meteorological data (1981–2010) from seven synoptic stations for model calibration and reference.
  • Crop-specific parameters (e.g., crop coefficients, growth periods).

Main Results

• Mean monthly temperature is projected to rise by approximately 1 °C in 2011–2030 and 2 °C in 2046–2065 across all months and scenarios, with higher increases in summer.
• Mean monthly precipitation is expected to increase in autumn and winter (approximately 11 mm in 2011–2030 and 7.5 mm in 2046–2065) but decrease in spring and summer (approximately 1 mm in 2011–2030 and 14 mm in 2046–2065).
• Mean annual precipitation is projected to decrease by approximately 3.57% in 2011–2030 and 3.48% in 2046–2065.
• The blue water footprint for examined crops is generally expected to increase (average 82 m³/ton in 2046–2065 compared to 1981–2010), with chickpea showing the highest increase (414.41 m³/ton under the low scenario in 2046–2065).
• The green water footprint for examined crops is generally expected to decrease (average 3.5 m³/ton in 2046–2065 compared to 1981–2010), with bean showing the highest decrease (46 m³/ton under the low scenario in 2046–2065).
• Green water footprint for wheat and autumn barley is projected to increase due to expected higher autumn precipitation.
• Changes in water footprints during 2011–2030 were minimal for most crops, becoming significant in 2046–2065.
• The largest percentage increase in blue water footprint was observed for barley (34%) and apricot (11%) under the high scenario in 2046–2065.
• The most substantial percentage decreases in green water footprint were recorded for cucumber (18%) and plum (9%) during the same period.
• The study recommends prioritizing cultivation of crops requiring lower blue water and higher green water, such as cereals and grapes, in the Lake Urmia basin.

Contributions

• Provides a unique and innovative approach by integrating climate forecasting with water footprint analysis as a comprehensive indicator for assessing agricultural water consumption in a water-stressed semi-arid region.
• Offers an effective guideline for developing sustainable and optimal agricultural exploitation of water resources in the Lake Urmia basin under climate change.
• Proposes a straightforward and reliable method for modifying cultivation patterns (e.g., for wheat and grapes) that can be utilized by water resource policymakers for future planning and sustainable management.
• Highlights the importance of adaptation strategies such as water-saving irrigation techniques and drought-resistant crop varieties for optimizing renewable water resource use.

Funding

• Lake Urmia Research Institute (ULRI), Urmia University, Urmia, Iran (Grant No. 013-A-95).

Citation

@article{Montaseri2025Climate,
  author = {Montaseri, Majid and Majd, Negar Rasouli and Amirataee, Babak},
  title = {Climate change impacts on the water footprint of horticultural and agronomic crops in the Lake Urmia basin},
  journal = {Modeling Earth Systems and Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s40808-025-02697-1},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-025-02697-1}
}