Mashoudi et al. (2025) Topographic Influences on Seasonal Drought in Morocco’s Western Rif: Insights from a 40-Year SPI-3 Analysis

Identification

• Journal: Earth Systems and Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-09-16
• Authors: Ayoub Al Mashoudi, Mohamed Arraji, A. Belhaj, Adil Akallouch, Mohammed Idrissi, Houda Sahnoun, Rabin Chakrabortty, Tarig Ali, Jerry Wayne Nave
• DOI: 10.1007/s41748-025-00803-y

Research Groups

• Department of Geography, Faculty of Letters and Human Sciences, Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Martil, Morocco
• Laboratory of Ecology, Systematics, and Conservation of Biodiversity (LESCB), Abdelmalek Essaadi University, Tetouan, Morocco
• Department of Geography, Faculty of Letters and Human Sciences, Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah University of Fez, Fez, Morocco
• Department of Geography, Faculty of Letters and Human Sciences, Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco
• Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Sciences of Gabes, Gabès, Tunisia
• Laboratory of Environmental Sciences and Sustainable Development, Preparatory Institute for Engineering Studies of Sfax (IPEIS), Sfax, Tunisia
• Department of Civil Engineering, American University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
• Energy, Water, and Sustainable Environment Research Center, American University of Sharjah, Sharjah, United Arab Emirates
• Department of Built Environment, College of Science and Technology, North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, USA

Short Summary

This study investigated the influence of static topographic factors on seasonal drought patterns in Morocco's Western Rif over 40 years, revealing that distance to the coast is the most significant predictor of winter drought intensity, while topographic influence is weaker in autumn and spring.

Objective

• To examine the influence of static topographic factors (elevation, slope, and proximity to the coastline) on seasonal drought patterns in the Western Rif region of Morocco to improve drought preparedness and spatial drought modeling.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Western Rif region of Morocco, utilizing data from 17 meteorological stations and a 30 meter resolution digital elevation model.
• Temporal Scale: 40 years (1980–2019), with analysis conducted on a seasonal scale (autumn, winter, and spring).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Multiple linear regression models were implemented to assess the relationship between topographic factors and seasonal drought. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was computed on a seasonal scale (SPI-3). Regression diagnostics included variance inflation factor (VIF), Shapiro–Wilk test, and Breusch–Pagan test.
• Data sources: Precipitation data from 17 meteorological stations. Topographic data (elevation, slope, and distance to coastline) were extracted from a 30 meter Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model using GIS-based processing tools.

Main Results

• Distance to the coast was identified as the most influential topographic variable, showing statistically significant effects during winter (p = 0.003), attributed to the inland attenuation of maritime air masses and orographic enhancement.
• Multiple linear regression models for autumn and spring exhibited weak predictive capacity, suggesting that convective or stochastic mechanisms dominate drought patterns during these transitional seasons.
• Elevation demonstrated limited explanatory power, and slope was consistently found to be non-significant across all seasons.
• The study highlights the conditional nature of topographic control on drought and underscores the necessity of seasonally adaptive frameworks for spatial drought modeling.

Contributions

• Presents the first drought–topography model specifically developed for Morocco’s Western Rif region.
• Establishes that distance to the coast is the primary topographic predictor for winter drought intensity in the study area.
• Demonstrates that the influence of topography on drought patterns significantly diminishes during the spring and autumn seasons.
• Provides a reproducible workflow integrating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) using open Digital Elevation Model (DEM) terrain data.
• Offers insights that support the development of localized drought adaptation strategies and enhanced climate resilience in Mediterranean mountain regions through the integration of physiographic metrics into early warning systems.

Funding

• This research received no external funding.

Citation

@article{Mashoudi2025Topographic,
  author = {Mashoudi, Ayoub Al and Arraji, Mohamed and Belhaj, A. and Akallouch, Adil and Idrissi, Mohammed and Sahnoun, Houda and Chakrabortty, Rabin and Ali, Tarig and Nave, Jerry Wayne},
  title = {Topographic Influences on Seasonal Drought in Morocco’s Western Rif: Insights from a 40-Year SPI-3 Analysis},
  journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s41748-025-00803-y},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00803-y}
}