Hojabri et al. (2025) Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Land Surface Temperature and Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Urmia Lake Basin: Exploring Land-Atmosphere Interactions Through Satellite Data and Ground Observations (2000–2023)

Identification

• Journal: Earth Systems and Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-06
• Authors: Javid Hojabri, Yusuf Alizade Govarchin Ghale
• DOI: 10.1007/s41748-025-00808-7

Research Groups

• Department of Remote Sensing and GIS, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
• Department of Climate and Marine Sciences, Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul, Turkey

Short Summary

This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes in the Urmia Lake Basin (ULB), Iran, from 2000 to 2023. It revealed a significant 9.63 °C increase in Urmia Lake Surface Temperature (ULST) due to lake drying, while Basin Surface Temperature (BST) showed no consistent trend, partially mitigated by expanded irrigated agriculture.

Objective

• To investigate the spatiotemporal variations in Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes in the Urmia Lake Basin (ULB) from 2000 to 2023, with a focus on the month of August.
• To explore land-atmosphere interactions by linking temperature dynamics to LULC transformations, particularly the expansion of irrigated agriculture, and to investigate the dual impacts of lake desiccation and agricultural development on regional thermal behavior.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Urmia Lake Basin (ULB), northwestern Iran, covering approximately 52,000 km².
• Temporal Scale: 2000–2023, with a focus on August for LST analysis.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Supervised classification (for Landsat LULC mapping).
  • Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) thresholding (NDVI = 0.3) for identifying irrigated lands.
  • Statistical parameters for accuracy assessment: Correlation coefficient (R), coefficient of determination (R²), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Bias Error (MBE), and Percent Bias (PBIAS).
• Data sources:
  • Satellite:
    • MODIS/Terra (version 6, daytime): MOD11A2 (8-day LST product), MOD11C3 (monthly LST product), MOD13Q1 (16-day Vegetation product/NDVI).
    • Landsat: Landsat 7, Landsat 8, and Landsat 9 images for LULC change analysis.
  • Observation:
    • Ground-observed air temperature data from 5 synoptic stations (Tabriz, Urmia, Salmas, Miandoab, Bonab) for 2000–2011.
    • Urmia Lake water level data for August months.

Main Results

• The Urmia Lake Surface Temperature (ULST) increased significantly by 9.63 °C over the study period, rising from 28.13 °C in 2000 to 37.76 °C in 2023, primarily due to the lake's shrinkage and the exposure of salt flats and saline soils.
• The Basin Surface Temperature (BST) showed no consistent trend, with a net decrease of approximately 1 °C between 2000 and 2023. It declined from 2000 to 2009, peaked at 43.6 °C in 2017, and then decreased to 41 °C by 2023.
• Irrigated land area within the basin expanded by 1.83 times, from approximately 3,000 km² in 2000 to 5,630 km² by 2023.
• A strong inverse correlation was found between water level and ULST (R = -0.88), and between water level and irrigated lands (R = -0.65), both statistically significant (p-values ≤ 0.001).
• Agricultural expansion, through enhanced evapotranspiration, partially mitigated temperature increases in extensively irrigated areas, while the dried lakebed experienced LST increases of 8–12 °C.
• Validation of MODIS-derived LST against ground-based air temperature data showed satisfactory accuracy, with R values ranging from 0.29 to 0.78 and MBE values between 0.36 °C and 0.65 °C across the studied stations.

Contributions

• Provides a novel, integrated spatio-temporal analysis of both Urmia Lake Surface Temperature (ULST) and Basin Surface Temperature (BST) over an extended timeframe (2000–2023).
• Uniquely investigates the dual impacts of lake desiccation and agricultural development on regional thermal behavior by linking temperature dynamics to LULC transformations, particularly the expansion of irrigated agriculture.
• Offers new insights into evapotranspiration-driven cooling effects and localized surface heating by capturing basin-wide temperature fluctuations alongside quantifiable LULC shifts.
• Employs a comprehensive methodological approach integrating multi-source remote sensing data (MODIS-LST, MODIS NDVI, Landsat imagery) with ground-based temperature observations and Urmia Lake water elevation data.
• Expands upon previous water-temperature-centric research by analyzing the entire fixed Urmia Lake boundary, including both desiccated and watery areas, to advance understanding of climatic consequences in arid lake basins.

Funding

This research received no funding.

Citation

@article{Hojabri2025Spatiotemporal,
  author = {Hojabri, Javid and Ghale, Yusuf Alizade Govarchin},
  title = {Spatio-temporal Dynamics of Land Surface Temperature and Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Urmia Lake Basin: Exploring Land-Atmosphere Interactions Through Satellite Data and Ground Observations (2000–2023)},
  journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s41748-025-00808-7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00808-7}
}