Kukuntod et al. (2025) Escalating Drought Vulnerability Driven by Land Use Change: Insights from a GIS-Based CA-Markov and Multi-Criteria Assessment of Future Scenarios in the Lam Ta Kong Watershed

Identification

• Journal: Earth Systems and Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-10-18
• Authors: Nontaporn Kukuntod, Saowanee Wijitkosum
• DOI: 10.1007/s41748-025-00882-x

Research Groups

• Interdisciplinary Program in Environmental Science, Graduate School, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand
• Sustainable Environment Research Institute, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand

Short Summary

This study assesses the impact of land use transitions on drought vulnerability in the Lam Ta Kong watershed, projecting that continued urban expansion and loss of agricultural/forested land will significantly increase high drought vulnerability zones by 10.55% by 2032.

Objective

• To assess the impact of projected land use changes on drought vulnerability in the Lam Ta Kong watershed using a novel integrated framework combining the Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) within a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Lam Ta Kong watershed, Nakhon Ratchasima province, northeast Thailand, covering approximately 5,161.2 square kilometers.
• Temporal Scale: Historical land use dynamics from 2000 to 2021; meteorological data from 1992 to 2021 (30-year period); drought vulnerability assessed for 2021 and projected for 2032.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Cellular Automata-Markov (CA-Markov) model for simulating future land use changes.
  • Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for evaluating drought vulnerability based on multiple criteria.
  • Geographic Information System (GIS) for spatial analysis, integration, and visualization.
• Data sources:
  • Geographical data: Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and stream density from the US Geological Survey (USGS).
  • Meteorological data: Average rainfall, precipitation days, temperature, and evaporation rates (30-year period, 1992–2021) from the Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) and the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM).
  • Soil data: Soil texture and fertility from the Land Development Department (LDD).
  • Land use data: Satellite imagery (Landsat 5) extracted and classified by the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA).

Main Results

• From 2000 to 2021, the watershed experienced a significant decline in agricultural land (678.21 square kilometers) and a substantial expansion of urban areas (387.62 square kilometers), with a modest net gain in forest cover (208.81 square kilometers).
• By 2032, urban areas are projected to expand by 33.11% (an increase of 241.15 square kilometers from 2021), primarily encroaching upon agricultural (142.53 square kilometers loss) and forested lands (107.11 square kilometers loss).
• In 2021, 35.09% of the watershed was classified as highly vulnerable to drought, with 10.94% exhibiting very high vulnerability, concentrated in the midstream regions.
• Under the projected 2032 land use scenario, the area classified as very high drought vulnerability is anticipated to increase significantly by 10.55% of the watershed area (from 10.94% to 21.49%).
• Rainfall was identified as the most critical criterion influencing drought vulnerability (relative weight of 0.19), followed by precipitation days (0.16) and land use (0.15).
• High vulnerability zones are primarily concentrated in the midstream and downstream regions, attributed to lower average annual rainfall (950–1,000 millimeters), high average temperatures (above 27 degrees Celsius), high annual evaporation rates (exceeding 1,200 millimeters), and rapid land use conversion.

Contributions

• Developed a novel integrated framework combining the CA-Markov model and AHP within a GIS platform to dynamically link projected land-use changes to spatial patterns of drought vulnerability, addressing a critical gap in existing literature.
• Quantified the isolated impact of land use change on future drought vulnerability, demonstrating how "business-as-usual" land-use trajectories, particularly urbanization, significantly intensify drought risk.
• Provided spatially explicit drought vulnerability maps for current (2021) and future (2032) scenarios, offering direct and actionable insights for strategic land use planning and comprehensive drought mitigation strategies at regional, provincial, and municipal levels.
• The methodological framework is highly transferable and adaptable for assessing land use-drought interrelations in diverse environmental and socio-economic contexts globally.

Funding

• 90th Anniversary of Chulalongkorn University Fund (Ratchadaphiseksomphot Endowment Fund)
• Project title: ‘Impact of Land Use Change on Drought Risk in the Lam Ta Kong Watershed’

Citation

@article{Kukuntod2025Escalating,
  author = {Kukuntod, Nontaporn and Wijitkosum, Saowanee},
  title = {Escalating Drought Vulnerability Driven by Land Use Change: Insights from a GIS-Based CA-Markov and Multi-Criteria Assessment of Future Scenarios in the Lam Ta Kong Watershed},
  journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s41748-025-00882-x},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00882-x}
}