Fagundes et al. (2025) Global Warming Levels (1.5–4 °C) and Water Availability for Eucalyptus Plantations Based on High-resolution CMIP6 Models

Identification

• Journal: Earth Systems and Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-06
• Authors: Flávia Fernanda Azevedo Fagundes, Fabrina Bolzan Martins, Roger Rodrigues Torres, Vitor Hugo de Almeida Marrafon
• DOI: 10.1007/s41748-025-00916-4

Research Groups

• Natural Resources Institute, Federal University of Itajubá, Itajubá, Minas Gerais, Brazil
• Climatempo, São José dos Campos, São Paulo, Brazil

Short Summary

This study globally assessed the impacts of four global warming levels (1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, 4 °C) on water availability for Eucalyptus plantations, finding increased water deficit and reduced water surplus, which could decrease economic viability by 30% to 89% in vulnerable regions.

Objective

• Determine the spatial patterns of four global warming levels (1.5 °C, 2 °C, 3 °C, and 4 °C) relative to pre-industrial levels.
• Assess the impacts of these global warming levels on actual evapotranspiration (AE), water surplus (WS), and water deficit (WD), and the viability of Eucalyptus plantations on a global scale using multi-General Circulation Models (GCMs) from NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6).

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global scale; CMIP6 GCMs at 1° x 1° latitude x longitude resolution (originally 1° to 5°); NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 GCMs and soil data at 0.25° x 0.25° latitude x longitude resolution (approximately 25 km).
• Temporal Scale: CMIP6 data from 1850 to 2100 (pre-industrial 1850–1900); NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 data from 1950 to 2100 (control period 1995–2014); global warming levels identified using a 21-year centered running mean.

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6).
  • NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6), statistically bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated from CMIP6 outputs.
  • Climatic Water Balance (CWB) method (Thornthwaite and Mather, 1955 and 1957, adapted by Dourado-Neto et al., 2010).
  • Potential Evapotranspiration (PET) estimated by a modified Thornthwaite (1948) method (Willmott et al., 1985).
• Data sources:
  • Daily mean near-surface air temperature and accumulated precipitation from CMIP6 (World Climate Research Programme, Earth System Grid data portal).
  • Daily mean near-surface air temperature and accumulated precipitation from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 (Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center, NASA Center for Climate Simulation).
  • Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2-4.5 ('middle of the road') and SSP5-8.5 ('fossil-fueled development').
  • Soil Water Holding Capacity (SWHC) data from NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System Version 2 (GLDAS-2) (Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) portal).
  • Eucalyptus crop coefficient (Kc) of 1.15 (Allen et al., 1998; Freitas et al., 2020).
  • Effective root depth of Eucalyptus of 330 cm (Freitas et al., 2020).

Main Results

• Global warming levels are projected to be reached earlier under the SSP5-8.5 scenario compared to SSP2-4.5 (e.g., 1.5 °C by 2028 vs. 2031, and 4 °C by 2072 vs. 2084).
• Warming occurs more intensely and rapidly in the Northern Hemisphere, particularly at latitudes greater than +60°, including Alaska, northern Canada, Greenland, Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia.
• Local temperature increases range from +0.5 °C to +3 °C at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, and +2 °C to +3 °C (potentially exceeding +6 °C in northern high latitudes) at 3 °C and 4 °C global warming levels.
• Annual precipitation is projected to decrease by up to -150 mm per year in regions such as Brazil, southern Chile, southern Central America, southern Africa, southern Europe, and parts of Australia, while increasing by up to +150 mm per year in southern Brazil, Peru, Central Africa, India, southwestern China, and latitudes greater than +60°.
• Increased crop evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, and water deficit, coupled with reduced water surplus, are expected globally, intensifying significantly at 3 °C and 4 °C global warming levels.
• The largest positive water deficit anomalies (ranging from +330 mm per year to +770 mm per year) are projected for Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Venezuela, parts of Mexico, West Africa, south-central Africa, southern Europe (Portugal, Spain), southeastern Asia (Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, India, Thailand), and eastern and western Australia.
• Areas deemed unfeasible for Eucalyptus cultivation (water deficit > 330 mm per year) will progressively expand, covering approximately 89% of Africa, 80% of Oceania, 59% of South America, 42% of Asia, 33% of North America, and 30% of Europe at the 4 °C global warming level.
• Conversely, small regions in northeastern Argentina, southern China, eastern Myanmar, and northern Laos may experience reductions in water deficit (up to -440 mm per year).
• The economic viability of Eucalyptus plantations could decline by 30% to 89% depending on the region and warming level.

Contributions

• This study provides the first comprehensive global-scale assessment of water availability impacts on Eucalyptus plantations under the Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming levels, as well as more extreme 3 °C and 4 °C thresholds.
• It utilizes the latest generation of high-resolution CMIP6 and NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 climate models, offering enhanced spatial accuracy (approximately 25 km) for localized climate projections compared to previous studies.
• The research quantifies the expansion of unfeasible areas for Eucalyptus cultivation across continents under increasing warming, identifying specific vulnerable regions globally.
• It offers critical scientific evidence to support climate-resilient forest management and adaptation strategies for the global forestry sector, emphasizing the importance of genotype selection and integrated management practices.

Funding

• Minas Gerais Research Support Foundation (FAPEMIG, project APQ 01511-24)
• Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES, process numbers 88887.613734/2021-00 and 88887.825319/2023-00)
• National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq, process numbers 306845/2021-0, 305799/2024-0, and 309215/2021-8)

Citation

@article{Fagundes2025Global,
  author = {Fagundes, Flávia Fernanda Azevedo and Martins, Fabrina Bolzan and Torres, Roger Rodrigues and Marrafon, Vitor Hugo de Almeida},
  title = {Global Warming Levels (1.5–4 °C) and Water Availability for Eucalyptus Plantations Based on High-resolution CMIP6 Models},
  journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s41748-025-00916-4},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00916-4}
}