Şen (2025) Global Standard Temperature Partial Trends for Dynamic Climate Change Impact Interpretations

Identification

• Journal: Earth Systems and Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-24
• Authors: Zekâi Şen
• DOI: 10.1007/s41748-025-00973-9

Research Groups

• Engineering and Natural Sciences Faculty, Istanbul Medipol University, Turkey

Short Summary

This paper introduces an innovative Temperature Trend Identification (TTI) methodology to analyze global temperature records, distinguishing trends in "Low," "Medium," and "High" temperature categories, and finds average increases of 0.9 °C for "Low" and 1.78 °C for "High" temperatures, alongside a 1.33 °C average incremental temperature.

Objective

• To develop and apply an innovative Temperature Trend Identification (TTI) methodology to global temperature records to identify and characterize trends in "Low," "Medium," and "High" temperature categories, providing a more nuanced understanding of global warming than traditional monotonic trend analyses.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Global
• Temporal Scale: Monthly and annual temperature records from 1881 to 2013

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Temperature Trend Identification (TTI) approach, a simplified version of the Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA) method. This involves dividing time series into two equal halves or multiple multi-period segments, sorting them, and plotting them against each other to identify trends and deviations from a 1:1 (45°) trend-free line.
• Data sources: National Clean Air Research (NCAR) center global temperature data (1881–2013).

Main Results

• The TTI approach revealed distinct increasing trends for "Low" and "High" global monthly temperatures, occurring along lines parallel to the 1:1 (45°) trend-free line, indicating homoscedasticity in these categories.
• On average, "Low" temperatures increased by 0.9 °C, and "High" temperatures increased by 1.78 °C, compared to the trendless line.
• The "Medium" temperature increase was 1.34 °C, with transitional variability (heteroscedasticity).
• The average incremental temperature across the entire record period was 1.33 °C, which is in acceptable agreement with the 2023 IPCC report's estimate of 1.45 ± 0.12 °C.
• Multi-period trend analysis showed varying trends across different decades, with continuous increasing trends observed after the 1960s, especially for periods longer than 30 years.

Contributions

• Introduces an innovative TTI methodology that provides a more detailed analysis of global warming by distinguishing trends in "Low," "Medium," and "High" temperature categories, which is not achievable by known classical methodologies.
• Extracts new verbal and numerical information regarding global standard temperature increases, offering a dynamic interpretation of climate change impacts.
• Empirically demonstrates that the impact of global warming differs significantly between "Low" and "High" temperatures.
• Recommends that future climate models (e.g., GCMs) consider the distinction between "Low" and "High" temperature increases, rather than just global average temperature increases.

Funding

• This research was conducted without any external funding.

Citation

@article{Şen2025Global,
  author = {Şen, Zekâi},
  title = {Global Standard Temperature Partial Trends for Dynamic Climate Change Impact Interpretations},
  journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s41748-025-00973-9},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00973-9}
}