Hussan et al. (2025) Climate Change Impact on Water Resources and Hydropower in Satpara Basin, Pakistan

Identification

• Journal: Earth Systems and Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-12-29
• Authors: Ahmad Hussan, Saqib Ashraf, Sangam Shrestha, Mustajab Ali, Nguyen Thi Minh Khanh
• DOI: 10.1007/s41748-025-01004-3

Research Groups

• Punjab Irrigation Department, Government of Punjab, Pakistan
• Sanyu Consultants Inc, Tokyo, Japan
• Water Engineering and Management (WEM), Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
• Department of Civil Engineering, Mirpur University of Science and Technology (MUST), Pakistan
• Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan
• Faculty of Economics, The University of Danang - University of Economics, Vietnam

Short Summary

This study assesses the impact of climate change on water resources and hydropower in Pakistan's Satpara Basin using hydrological and reservoir models under RCP scenarios. It projects increased winter/spring streamflow and hydropower generation (5–20%), but decreased summer streamflow (up to 17%) and an earlier peak flow, highlighting challenges for water management.

Objective

• To evaluate the impacts of climate change on the runoff patterns and hydropower generation of the Satpara Dam in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan.
• To examine projected temperature and precipitation changes, assess their effects on catchment inflows, and determine future variations in hydropower generation and reservoir performance at a reservoir-operational scale.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Satpara Basin, Karakoram Range, Northern Pakistan. Catchment area: 289 square kilometers. Elevation range: 2,635 meters to 5,250 meters above sea level.
• Temporal Scale:
  • Baseline period: 1975–2005
  • Future time horizons: 2030s (2025–2045), 2060s (2046–2065), and 2080s (2066–2090)
  • Climate model period: 1975–2090
  • Hydrological model calibration: 2011
  • Hydrological model validation: 2013–2014

Methodology and Data

• Models used:
  • Hydraulic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) for streamflow simulation.
  • HEC-ResSim for reservoir operation and hydropower simulation.
  • Linear Scaling (LS) method for bias correction of climate data.
• Data sources:
  • Climate Data:
    • Three Regional Climate Models (RCMs): ACCESS1-0, CNRM-CM5, MPI-ESM-LR (0.5° × 0.5° grid resolution) for maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5.
    • Santa Clara University (SCU) gridded reanalysis data for temperature extension.
    • APHRODITE gridded dataset (0.25° × 0.25°) for precipitation.
  • Hydrological/Meteorological Observations:
    • Daily weather data (temperature, precipitation, streamflow, relative humidity, solar radiation) from Pakistan’s Water & Power Development Authority (WAPDA).
    • Monthly maximum and minimum temperature observations from Deosai station.
    • Streamflow at Satpara Nullah gauge near Satpara Dam (WAPDA, 2011–2014).
    • Evaporation losses from WAPDA records.
  • Spatial Data:
    • Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) at 30 meter spatial resolution.
    • USGS Land Cover Institute (LCI) land use and land cover data (900 meter spatial resolution).
    • World Digital Soil Map (DSMW) for soil classification.
  • Dam Specifications: Satpara Dam and powerhouse specifications.

Main Results

• Temperature Projections: Both maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to rise under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. For RCP 4.5, summer maximum temperature is expected to increase by 1.6 °C (2030s), 1.2 °C (2060s), and 1.9 °C (2080s). Under RCP 8.5, maximum temperature could increase by up to 9.1 °C and minimum temperature between 7.3 °C and 9.0 °C by the 2080s. A strong correlation (R² = 0.85) was found between average temperature and streamflow changes.
• Precipitation Projections: Annual precipitation changes range from -6.3% to +10.1% under RCP 4.5 and -1.2% to +15.3% under RCP 8.5. Seasonally, winters and springs are projected to become wetter (e.g., Spring up to +40% by 2080s under RCP 8.5), while summers are projected to become drier (reductions up to -32% by 2080s under RCP 4.5, and -29% under RCP 8.5).
• Streamflow Projections: Mean annual streamflow is predicted to increase overall (14–31% under RCP 4.5, 15–96% under RCP 8.5). Winter and spring streamflow are projected to increase significantly due to earlier snowmelt and increased precipitation. However, summer streamflow is projected to decline by up to 17% (RCP 4.5, 2080s). The timing of peak streamflow is expected to shift earlier from May to April in the mid and far future under both RCP scenarios.
• Hydropower Generation: Overall hydropower production is projected to increase by 5–20% across all future periods and scenarios. Powerhouse P-1 (influenced by dam head) is projected to increase by 10.1–16.5% (RCP 4.5) and 5–24% (RCP 8.5). Powerhouses P-2, P-3, and P-4 (influenced by irrigation supplies) are projected to increase by 3.7–14% (RCP 4.5) and 6.3–23% (RCP 8.5). The reservoir demonstrates 100% reliability and complete resilience in meeting existing demand.

Contributions

• Fills a knowledge gap by providing a comprehensive assessment of climate change impacts on water resources and hydropower in the poorly studied Satpara Basin, a high-altitude sub-basin of the Upper Indus Basin.
• Integrates bias-corrected regional climate model outputs with hydrological (HEC-HMS) and reservoir operation (HEC-ResSim) models to provide projections at a reservoir-operational scale.
• Offers actionable insights for policymakers on sustainable water resource management, including recommendations for adjusting reservoir operation rules (e.g., revising seasonal rule curves) and integrated water-energy planning to address seasonal water scarcity and leverage hydropower gains.

Funding

No funding for this research.

Citation

@article{Hussan2025Climate,
  author = {Hussan, Ahmad and Ashraf, Saqib and Shrestha, Sangam and Ali, Mustajab and Khanh, Nguyen Thi Minh},
  title = {Climate Change Impact on Water Resources and Hydropower in Satpara Basin, Pakistan},
  journal = {Earth Systems and Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s41748-025-01004-3},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-01004-3}
}