Khoso et al. (2025) Impacts of global climate change on floods in Pakistan with current trends challenges and future perspectives

Identification

• Journal: Discover Environment
• Year: 2025
• Date: 2025-11-18
• Authors: Waheed Ali Khoso, Muhammad Ashraf Tanoli, Muhammad Tariq Bashir, Md. Munir Hayet Khan, Muhammad Waseem, Raid Alrowais, Abdul Wahab, Megersa Kebede Leta
• DOI: 10.1007/s44274-025-00403-7

Research Groups

• Department of Civil Engineering, Ghulam Ishaq Khan Institute of Engineering Sciences and Technology, Topi, Pakistan
• Department of Civil Engineering, CECOS University of IT and Emerging Sciences, Peshawar, Pakistan
• Faculty of Engineering and Quantity Surveying (FEQS), INTI International University, Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia
• Department of Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, Jouf University, Sakakah, Saudi Arabia
• Department of Civil Engineering, University of Southern Mississippi, Hattiesburg, MS, USA
• Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Jimma Institute of Technology, Jimma University, Jimma, Ethiopia

Short Summary

This comprehensive review examines the impacts of global climate change on floods in Pakistan, identifying key drivers, socioeconomic vulnerabilities, and proposing a flood process typology. The study concludes that climate change is intensifying flood frequency and severity in Pakistan, necessitating improved data, forecasting, and robust mitigation strategies aligned with sustainable development goals.

Objective

• To provide a comprehensive review and comparative analysis of the impacts of global climate change on floods in Pakistan.
• To identify key factors, causes, and associated losses under current and future scenarios, highlighting the climate–water–flood nexus and socioeconomic vulnerabilities.
• To propose a flood process typology using indicators such as timing, rainfall depth, storm duration, snowmelt, runoff dynamics, and spatial coherence.

Study Configuration

• Spatial Scale: Pakistan (national, provincial, major cities, Indus Delta, coastal belt), with references to South Asia and global climate change context.
• Temporal Scale: Historical analysis (e.g., 1901-2000, 1970-2022, 1999-2018) and future projections (e.g., by 2030, 2040, 2050, 2100).

Methodology and Data

• Models used: Statistical models, dynamical models (for flood prediction), hydrological models (for climate change impact assessment), ensemble simulations.
• Data sources: Comprehensive review and comparative analysis of multiple scientific articles, historical climate data (temperature, precipitation), greenhouse gas emission data (e.g., from EPA, World Bank), flood data (discharge values, flood types from 1970-2022), IPCC reports, NASA satellite data, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) data.

Main Results

• Pakistan is ranked among the top five most vulnerable countries to climate change, experiencing increased frequency and severity of floods (flash, urban, riverine, snowmelt).
• Over 76% of Pakistan's CO2 emissions stem from power plants and transportation.
• The mean annual temperature in Pakistan increased by approximately 0.57 °C over the 20th century (1901-2000), with regional variations (e.g., Baluchistan 1.12 °C, Punjab 0.97 °C, Sindh 0.91 °C, KPK 0.52 °C from 1960-2007).
• Global glacier mass is projected to lose 26% (under +1.5 °C warming) to 41% (under +4 °C warming) by 2100 relative to 2015.
• A flood process typology is proposed, categorizing floods into long-rain, short-rain, flash, rain-on-snow, snowmelt, riverine, and urban floods, based on indicators like timing, storm duration, rainfall depths, snowmelt, catchment state, runoff dynamics, and spatial coherence.
• Long-rain floods are identified as the most prevalent type based on annual flood maxima.
• The 2022 floods in Pakistan resulted in approximately 1,739 fatalities, impacted over 33 million people, and caused an estimated economic loss of 30 billion USD, destroying over 4 million hectares of agricultural land.
• Sea levels rose by an average of 1.7 mm per year between 1870 and 2000, resulting in a 221 mm gain, and have accelerated to an estimated 3 mm per year since 1993, totaling 48 mm.

Contributions

• Provides a comprehensive, integrated review and comparative analysis of climate change impacts on floods in Pakistan, synthesizing diverse perspectives.
• Identifies the key factors, causes, and socioeconomic vulnerabilities exacerbating flood risks in Pakistan under current and future climate scenarios.
• Proposes a novel flood process typology for Pakistan based on multiple process indicators (timing, storm duration, rainfall depths, snowmelt, catchment state, runoff dynamics, spatial coherence), enhancing understanding of underlying flood causes.
• Highlights the critical need for improved data quality, ensemble forecasting, robust modeling, strategic planning, resilient infrastructure, and policy reform for effective flood mitigation in Pakistan.
• Connects climate change impacts and flood management strategies to relevant Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 6, 11, 13, 15) in the context of Pakistan.

Funding

This research received no specific grant or external funding.

Citation

@article{Khoso2025Impacts,
  author = {Khoso, Waheed Ali and Tanoli, Muhammad Ashraf and Bashir, Muhammad Tariq and Khan, Md. Munir Hayet and Waseem, Muhammad and Alrowais, Raid and Wahab, Abdul and Leta, Megersa Kebede},
  title = {Impacts of global climate change on floods in Pakistan with current trends challenges and future perspectives},
  journal = {Discover Environment},
  year = {2025},
  doi = {10.1007/s44274-025-00403-7},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1007/s44274-025-00403-7}
}